The slide

There was this slide on my seminar today.
The song was echoing in my head during the day.

you’re just too good to be true
can’t take my eyes off of you..

So I told my self, “Keep focusing, Dar. This is a big day. Don’t mess it up.”
And finally, it was an excellent day today.
Like always

Terima kasih Tuhan, cahaya kasih Mu menghangatkan hatiku.
The water is colder, but the day was excellent.
Makasih, Tuhan.

(*)

Fwd: Penurunan volatilitas short term: penyebab dan aplikasi praktisnya

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———- Forwarded message ———-

From: Darma
Date: May 10, 2007 10:05 PM
Subject: Penurunan volatilitas short term: penyebab dan aplikasi praktisnya
To: indotraders@yahoogroups.com
Dear traders,

Kalau kita pasang indicator ATR (Average True Range), di timeframe 15 menit, dengan periode 15 bar, lalu dipasang moving average nya dengan periode 100 bar, maka kita mendapatkan suatu gambaran seberapa banyak gerakan rata2 per satu bar di 15 menit.
Nah, ternyata ada fenomena menarik.

Kalau di tahun-tahun dulu, misalnya di tahun 2005, rata-rata gerakan per 15 menit di EUR/USD adalah 13 pips (lihat gambar chart di bawah). Sedangkan di tahun-tahun sekarang ini, semenjak tahun 2006 november, gerakan market menjadi lebih tipis. Rata2 hanya 6 pips per 15 menit.

Hal yg sama terjadi di GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF dan lainnya.
Penyebabnya adalah: meningkatnya likuiditas market. Yang tadinya rata2 volume transaksi harian di forex adalah $ 1-2 trilliun per hari, semenjak pertengahan 2006, menjadi $ 3 trilliun per hari. Ini menurut report dari BIS (Bank for International Settlement).

Aplikasi praktis dari hal ini adalah:
Untuk trading di short term, intraday, tidak lagi realistis untuk mengharapkan takeprofit seperti di tahun-tahun sebelum 2006. Yang tadinya di GBP/USD mengharapkan bisa take profit 15-20 point dalam waktu 30-60 menit, kini hal itu agak sulit. Mesti di jam2 tertentu saja yang memang volatilitas meningkat seperti saat ada news. Kalau di jam-jam normal, dalam waktu 30-60 menit lebih mudah untuk bias ambil 10-12 pips saja. Itu contoh angka untuk di GBP/USD. Sedangkan untuk di EUR/USD, mesti dilihat masing2. Pasang saja indicator ATR dan moving average seprti gambar di bawah ini.
Ini tentu sejalan dengan menurunnya spread di retail spot di hampir semua broker di dunia. Yang misalnya saja tadinya spread 5 pips di FXCM dan marketmaker lainnya, sekarang rata2 udah pada turun. Spread 2-3 pips sudah lumrah sekali. Bahkan belakangan ini kita lihat spread aneh 1 pips no commission di marketmaker nekat seperti crown dan fxclearing. Kalau di bntuk2 ecn sih biasa, memang 1-2 pips dari sejak mereka hadir untuk retail sejak tahun lalu.

Segitu dulu. Selamat mengeksplorasi lebih jauh lagi. Kalo ada pendapat atau ide lain, silahkan disampaikan.

Rgrds,
Darma

Cuap2 bulan mei

Ugh, sering denger kan seminar2 dan promosi2 tentang investasi di market forex atau futures (stock index) gitu. Biasanya promosinya manis tapi isinya pahit.
Pasti udah sering denger kan, dengan iming2 “investasi”, tapi ternyata malah duit jadi amblas blas blas blas….
Kasus besar yg terbongkar misalnya kasus Sarana Perdana Indoglobal (SPI), trus ada kasus IBIST, trus kasus WBG (Dressel). Semua mengatas-namakan investasi. Belum lagi penipuan kecil2an yg dilakukan oknum marketing dari futures brokers gitu. Janjiin profit lah, nawarin fix-profit lah dll. Tapi kenyataannya malah sebaliknya: uang nasabah dibawa kabur. Haks haks haksss.. kacau banget dah pokoknya..

Nah, kebetulan akhir bulan mei ini saya ada kesempatan utk cuap2 di sebuah acara bersama pak Hasan Zein, dirutnya Bursa Berjangka Jakarta (BBJ). Mudah2an di kesempatan itu bisa disampaikan informasi yg benar tentang dunia trading di market forex dan futures. Jadi tidak seperti seminar2 bombastis scammers gitu.

Salah satu topik yg saya akan sampaikan adalh tentang bagaimana trading yang (menurut pengetahuan saya) benar. Tidak terjebak pada keputusan2 transaksi yang selalu menyebabkan amblasnya modal, dan tidak terjebak pada iming2 keuntungan investasi yang biasa dijanjikan oleh oknum2 marketin brokers itu.

F is for Final

After the sharing session, I do this small change to the algorithm, where it does the money management part of it.

volume = NormalizeDouble(
(AccountBalance()*prm_gearing_ratio)/
(prm_pair_diversify*MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSIZE)),
prm_lot_resolution);

This will automate the process in determining the position size based on a fixed number of gearing ratio.
I have a 5.33 gearing ratio, this will be the value of prm_gearing_ratio.
prm_pair_diversify will be 2, since the system will be run on two pair: EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
When trading on a mini acct, the MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSIZE) will automatically return a value of 10,000 or 100k when trading a standard account.
With this piece of code, i dont have to calculate some basic arithmetic on waste papers anymore. LOL.
This version is tagged as vy5f. So the version is StealthTrader_vy5f now. I hope F is for Final. he he he..
Good luck to us !!!

Concern about the future of IBFX business

National Futures Associataion (NFA) has recently filed a complaint to Interbank FX and its principal, Mr. Crossland. The issue has been a major concern to the metatrader user, especially those who has account with Interbank FX. (That is including me. )
After reading the case sumary, I understand that the issue is about false claim in marketing materials, and nothing to do with unfair dealing practices nor any management frauds.

But still I have this thing in my head, since I have my money with them. So I sent this message to Patrick Nouvion to have his direct opinion on this matter.

Dear patrick,
I am a regular reader of your blog.
I can understand that you are the correct person i can ask this question and expect a good answer.
It is about the recent NFA action against Interbankfx.
I read it here at this link.
What do you think of this. How will this affect the future of interbankfx business ?
I am concerning my money in the account, but i worry more on if interbankfx has to stop its operation, it will be a huge loss to the metatrader fans. ibfx is a valuable asset to metatrader fans community.
Thank you in advance for any answer from you..

Rgrds,
Darma

and this is reply from Patrick:

Hi Darma,

There is really nothing to worry about, IBFX will certainly have to pay some fines but nothing that endangers their business
If you really into the NFA’s document you will see that the reasons for these fines were more marketing/advertising issues than business operations …
IBFX will not go out of business over that type of issues
_________________
Patrick
Visit my Website

So, we can all sleep in peace. LOL
Again we all can see a good practice of NFA in regulating OTC brokers in the US.

The sharing session

The sharing session went well.
Some good and fresh ideas was given to me so I can improve the system to be more robust.
Although several things like building the system based on some rocket-science-kind-of Neural Network is a bit too unrealistic at this stage, but they shed some lights and adds up to my library of knowledge in my brain. he he he..
I had several old friends in the session like Asrul, Adek, Adit, Mey, Andre, Setyana, Ariel. And more new friends like imelda, remmy, nico, oswald, and several others. There were 22 people.
I disclosed the gears and bolts of the 10th version of the simplified Stealth_Trader System (STS), and then I get many feedbacks to improve it. A final touch, if you like.
For those who are interested in getting the powerpoint presentation file, please contact me.
This time is my turn to share. Next time will be other’s. That way, we’ll move forward faster than if we each work alone.

Thanks, and good luck to us !!
Darma