FOREX QUANT

November 28, 2007

CFA Course Material

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 11:09 pm
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I’ve came to a conclusion that a strong entrepreneurial passion and experience I have and the business tradition from the family would not be enough for handling one of our newest unit in Jakarta. At the very first glance, this course materials might help:

Financial Statement Analysis and Corporate Finance (16 sessions)
Ethics and Basic Investment Tools (Quantitative Analysis and Economics) (18 sessions)
Asset Valuation and Portfolio Management (20 sessions)
Review Class + Mock Up Exam & Explanatory (10 sessions)
Total     64 sessions

Ethical and Professional Standard
Economics*
Quantitative Analysis
Financial Statement Analysis**
Asset Valuation***
Portfolio Management

* For level 3, Economics include in Portfolio Management
** For Level 1 and 2, Corporate Finance include in Financial Statement Analysis
*** Include Market & Instruments, Equity, Debt, Derivative and Alternative  Investments.
For level 3, Derivative include in Portfolio Management

But then I’ve also found information in a discussion board in CFA Indonesia Study Group, that the things can be learned by only buying the book set from the CFA Institute and some other useful books. Therefore, attending a course isn’t needed. And it was even said that buying the book and set materials from the CFA institute is a prerequisite for doing the internationally standardized assessment test.
Well, I’m not more into doing the test, but just need to get a good grip on the subjects.

(*)

November 26, 2007

Prediction is Nonsense

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 6:59 pm
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Thanks to R who consistently posts useful articles in his journal. This time he posted a link to an article at the economist.com. The most interesting thing for me in that article is these paragraphs. It is stated that,

To show how this works, Messrs Frydman and Goldberg examine the PERSISTENT failure of economists to predict movements in the currency markets. According to Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard who has long attempted to find rational models for predicting currency fluctuations, “it is stunning how hard it is to explain movements in exchange rates.”

All the models based on rational expectations now say that, on fundamentals, the euro is overvalued against the dollar, he reckons. But does that mean the dollar will soon rise? Mr Rogoff says he has no idea.

In rational-expectations theory, a range of variables including inflation, interest rates and growth should have a predictable impact on currency movements, but in practice this theory has proved less useful for forecasting than tossing a coin. Among rational economists, the debate is over “whether the glass is 5% full or 95% empty,” he says. Only over longer periods—say two to four years—is there any evidence of exchange-rate predictability, which is far too long to be useful to traders or policymakers.

So, isn’t it clear now.. just stop predicting.
Develop a trading model. Not a prediction model.

(*)

November 22, 2007

November 20, 2007

Chart Reading Cult

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 7:19 am
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I have had a discussion in Pradeep Bonde’s post at TG’s blog. He stated that traders should burn their chart, because chart reading is a long enduring cult in the market. So then he advice traders to burn their chart. lol.

Well, i do agree with him that chart reading is wrong. I often called it as “technical analysis mumbo jumbo”. Drawing lines, discretionarily analyzing the market. They really are cult, imo. LOL. But don’t burn your chart.

It’s like many man died in an open combat, although they bring their weapons. it doesn’t mean that a soldier should throw away their weapon and burn it because of that fact.

In my humble opinion, the same goes for chart and price action in trading. It is not the chart and price action that is not useful. It is the lack of a system to follow that make traders fail. To make money in the market, one should first gather a sufficient amount of knowledge, then develop their system, then evaluate them, then measure the risk profile of the system to determine the proper gearing ratio to suit the risk acceptance of the traders/investors, then follow the system with discipline. Some key points in system development must be considered, especially avoiding curve fitting, optimization, etc.

And by doing all these sequence of system development and ended up by disciplinely trading a system, a price-action-only trader would make money in the market. No need to consider other information such as the earnings, interest rate, nor any other fundamental info. They are nothing but noises.

But yes, many people has fallen into the endless forest of chart reading. Chart reading is not the proper way of using the chart. Developing a system based on price action should be the answer. Do not burn your chart because one will go to the combat zone unarmed because he believes that the fundamental gods will protect him after his praying session. Earnings report, etc is not the instrument to be traded. Price is. Then, just trade the price.
Many money managers and hedge funds get into trouble because they burn their chart.

So, in short words: chart reading is the wrong way of using charts. Do not burn your charts. Use them properly. Do not chart reading… but instead: develop a price-action-only system. It works. At least for me.

Here is Mr. Pradeep’s piece. I couldn’t find the page in TG’s blog anymore, perhaps it’s been deleted to avoid the increasingly tensed discussion by the many angry members of the cult. lol.

Chart reading is a long enduring cult in the market. Beginner traders are quickly grabbed by the simplicity of charts reading techniques and chart patterns. They waste countless hours and years perfecting chart reading and making sub optimal returns. Many get so lost in the technical analysis jungle, that they never find profitable way out of it.

If chart reading was the way to success in market, there would be millions of trading millionaire. After all how much time does it take to read a book on chart reading and chart patterns , probably a day. It is so easy according to practitioners of the esoteric arts that if you are of average intelligence you should master it in few days. Once you do that lo and behold, you will have trading success. The reality is far from it.

All that chart reading and chart patterns tells you is very simple and basic market framework like trend line, support and resistance. If you try and trade with such a simplistic framework, you are unlikely to make much money.

Path to profitability in trading starts by unlearning your technical analysis framework. Burn your charts,learn new market paradigm and your profits will increase.

So, be carefull when ‘experts’ tell you something. They aren’t necessarily always right.

(*)

November 15, 2007

Fundamentally Noisy

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 8:27 am
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From Grace Cheng’s blog today:

The BOE quarterly inflation report prompted long profit-taking actions in the British Pound after the bank said it could comfortably allow interest rates to drop from their current level of 5.75% to around 5% without inflation getting out of control.
BOE governor King said he expects GDP growth to slow “sharply” in 2008 and the bank forecasts at least one rate cut in 2008.
“Further financial market fallout, either at home or overseas, poses the biggest downside risk to activity,” the report said.
EUR/GBP rallied to a 4-year high while GBP/USD fell 200 pips today to around 2.0660.

Fundamentally noisy. LOL. So now everyone should trade the market based on a rate hike due next year? That’s how analysts got their job, isnt it?

And market gurus wud say “buy rumors, sell facts”. Ya ya ya..
I’d prefer we just “Buy/Sell the FACT”. No rumors.
Only the FACT. No Noises.

(*)

November 14, 2007

Postmo Darvas Method (?)

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 11:13 pm
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Still inspired by the same article as in my previous post, the author suggested a form of a “Modern Day Darvas Method”,

Here are a few ways a modern-day Darvas might prevent micromanaging trades:
* Use Your Platform Tools. Set it and forget it. Whether you have sophisticated tools like bracket orders or just the basics, use the tools your broker has provided to help you structure your trades in such a way that they have the ability to play out without needing your constant supervision. This will help you to trade without emotion and allow you to fully implement your strategy for the trade from start to finish.
* Hide The Number. I’ve written about hiding the number before, and I think it can be quite beneficial, whether it’s your account balance or even just your P&L on trades. A trader friend of mine claims that hiding his P&L has made the biggest positive impact in his trading – more than any tools or indicators. It’s an interesting concept, particularly if you find yourself overreacting to every little pullback or advance. By giving his broker trade instructions ahead of time, Darvas didn’t watch his P&L or spook himself out of trades.
* Turn off the news flow. Darvas found that his absence from the Street allowed him to stay in trades longer so that he could let his original game plan play out. That means he was not surrounding himself with rumors or opinions or the news flow. He didn’t make bets based on gut feel – he stuck to the charts, trading from the price action when opportunies arose. If for you that means turning off CNBC, avoiding comparing opinions with your trading buddies by staying off of instant messenger or Skype, then so be it. Whatever helps you make your money is what you need to focus on. Remember, Silence is Golden!

Yes, they are indeed good tips. But if the method above are called “Modern”, what then he’ll call this method below:

  • Define the strategy into the fullest details,
  • Write them into a working algorithm,
  • Backtest,
  • Evaluate,
  • Modify & improve,
  • Re-test,
  • Re-evaluate,
  • Fine tune,
  • Another re-test,
  • Validation test,
  • Let the strategy be automated through any growing number of supporting brokers.

Will these sequence of strategy automation produce a new method called as “Post-Modern Darvas” then? LOL.

(*)
Postmodern architecture

Geopolitical news, rumors or sentiment, are nothing BUT NOISE

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 10:04 pm
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I’ve came across this article in a website. The tittle is “Modern Day Darvas Methods“. The article is very interesting because it highlighted the essential idea in the famous book, “How I made 2MM in the Stock Market” by Nicolas Darvas. The article stated,

The book outlines how Darvas became a successful trader by overcoming his own mistakes through his ‘box theory’. Having gone through several different methods without finding any consistency in profitability, he ultimately became a chartist and a millionaire – imagine that!”

The article went further describing the book with more details on how Mr. Darvas prevent himself from “micromanaging” his trades,

While traveling the world by way of his profession as a dancer, he received his weekly copy of Barron’s, and reviewed his stocks of interest through these quotes which were delayed by days. After reviewing the prices and locating his favorite chart pattern, he would wire detailed trade instructions to his broker. Although today’s markets move faster than they did back then, at the end of the day he was simply focused on the price action and how his stocks were moving – just as we all should be. This means he was not being distracted by the extra “noise” of every tick, geopolitical news, rumors or sentiment.

I would put more stress on the last line: “…he was not being distracted by the extra “noise” of every tick, geopolitical news, rumors or sentiment..”

I couldn‘t agree more on this. Geopolitical news, rumors or sentiment, are nothing BUT NOISE. Just filter it out from the process of making trading decisions, and we’ll have a clear day :-)

(*)
Get rid of the noise like this.

Safe Country to Have Trading Account

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 1:54 pm
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Safe country to have trading account? It would be Singapore, Canada and the UK. In those countries, brokers or dealers are required to segregate clients’ accounts, so that in the event of a broker’s bankruptcy, clients would be considered secured creditors and receive priority in bankruptcy proceedings.
Indonesia also have this arrangement, but the trading condition for trading OTC-FX and regional indices through regulated futures brokers in Indonesia is not good. Spread and commissions are gigantic. And not to mention the phony trade routing path.procedure. If you know how client’s trades are routed, where to, etc, you’ll get the best laugh of the day. lol.

Brokers Can Go Bankrupt
Posted by Grace Cheng on Nov 13 2007

Have you heard the latest big news about E*Trade Financials? E*Trade is an online low-cost brokerage company whose shares dropped 59% Monday after a Citigroup analyst estimated there is a 15% chance E*Trade will be forced to file for bankruptcy protection after the company warned in a filing that bigger-than-expected losses could result from its banking arm which invests in securities backed by mortgages.

It is startling to have such a massive plunge in stock price, but what is of main concern is that retail investors who have accounts with them are at risk of losing their money, even though SIPC’s protection cover securities customers up to $100,000 for claims for cash.

Luckily, E*Trade is mainly a securities/options broker, not a forex broker otherwise forex traders will have to start transferring their funds to rival brokers.

Are you trading through a broker that is situated in a country that requires brokers to segregate clients’ funds according to the country’s financial regulations? Countries such as Singapore, Canada and UK require brokers or dealers to segregate clients’ accounts, so that in the event of a broker’s bankruptcy, clients would be considered secured creditors and receive priority in bankruptcy proceedings.

Trade safe folks.

Yes, trade safe
(*)

November 13, 2007

Strategy Runner: Server Based Solution for Algorithmic Trading

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 5:19 pm
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Algorithmic trading automation project often face the problem of machine hosting and maintenance and the need of multiple account management.
SR’s features may perhaps provide solutions for the problems.

http://www.strategyrunner.com

Fully Automated Trading System – Online Trading Platform

Strategy Automation Station (SAS)
SAS is an advanced server-based solution for automation, execution & distribution of trading strategies written in TradeStation, Excel, Visual Basic, WealthLab, .Net, Fix, COM, Java, C, C++ or any other proprietary platform to one account or to multiple subscribers.

Who is it for?
Traders, System Traders, Strategy Developers, CTAs, POAs, CPO that want to automate their trading systems and trade on single account or distribute them to multiple subscribers.

Single Account – How does it work?
Execution: Clients runs the strategy in TradeStation (Excel, WealthLab, etc), and SAS routes strategy signals to clients account.
Control: Client can monitor strategy execution through Strategy Runner console.

Multiple Accounts – How does it work?
Execution: The developers execute the strategy from within their platform (e.g. TradeStation), and SAS sends strategy signal to clients’ account. Strategy Runner servers.
Distribution: The Strategy Runner server at the FCM’s facility receives the signals, and executes the trades for one or multiple subscribers in their individual accounts.
Control: Each individual subscriber can monitor and control the strategy execution through Strategy Runner Pro console.

Manage: The broker can monitor and manage all subscribers’ accounts from the Strategy Runner Manager tool.

Several brokers providing the possibility of using SR are: Infinity, Global Futures, Fox, Lind-Waldock, and Gaincapital.
(*)

MT4 to non-MT4 brokers via Strategyrunner

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 5:15 pm
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On Nov 13, 2007 5:41 AM, Darma <sub01> <b01@gmail.com> wrote:

www.strategyrunner.com server based solution for trade automation.
Several non-MT4 brokers provide access for strategyrunner.
And one of GFT’s web page says that it also integrate with Metatrader 4.
http://www.gftforex.com/software/dealbook360/sr.asp
im not affiliated with any of them.
Does anyone have any experience or comment on this?

Thanks.

Access the next generation of fully automated algorithmic forex trading using
seamless data integration tools to communicate between two separate
software programs. This allows you to easily automate strategies that
have been created through TradeStation, Wealthlabs, MetaTrader 4
or MS Excel. Any standard GFT trading account with a strategy written
in one of these four platforms can obtain the Strategy Runner service
at no additional cost.

Your strategies can be fully integrated to work with Strategy
Runner’s platform, and your trades will be executed through GFT. This
formula, combined with GFT’s reliable trade execution and over 99
percent uptime, is well-suited for the 24-hour, 5.5 days a week, nature
of the forex market.

About Strategy Runner

Strategy Runner’s powerful
innovative server-based technology for fully automated algorithmic
trading solutions integrates the needs of buy- and sell- side
institutions to access, automate, distribute, and execute trading
algorithms. It provides flexible customizable solutions for centralized
secure distribution of broker-supplied algorithms over multiple assets,
accounts and clearing firms.

===========================

On 11/13/07, Carl Sanders <traden4x@gmail.com> wrote:

I have had no experience with them. I know someone who uses/has used them and has had some problems lately. Slow or possibly no execution. I have something similar to this but not to GFT. There is definitely a need for this.

Carl

===========================

On Nov 13, Darma <sub01> <b01@gmail.com> wrote:

When one can put Metatrader 4 working with strategyrunner, he can trade through Man Financial’s Currenex platform, the MF Spot On (http://www.mfglobal.com.sg/en/etrade_MFXSpot-On.html).
It says:

Automated System Trading

MFX Spot-On, our professional electronic Foreign Exchange trading
platform, is compatible with automated system trading applications. We
facilitate algorithmic trading for clients by providing API
(application programming interface) for algorithmic connection
functionality. Clients who have developed and host their own models can
connect to MFX Spot-On using third party systems.

The “third party systems” is meant to be strategyrunner, as I was directed to MFXSpot-On page from a banner in strategyrunner website.

Rgrds,
Darma

===========================

For archives of Experts and Indicators from the MetaTrader Experts and Indicators Group
See http://www.forexmt4.com/ or http://www.lightpatch.com/forex

November 12, 2007

TraderFeed (Brett Steenbarger’s Blog)

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 1:21 pm
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I’ve found the blog of Brett Steenbarger, author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003) and Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006) with an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge.
some of good posts in the blog are:
Steps toward joining prop firm
Test before you invest in trading career
trading techniques collection

November 9, 2007

And the Lady Joins Dumping the Dollars too

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 1:22 pm
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She prefer to get her payments in Euro rather than the Dollars. Smart move, baby.
You definitely are my type. lol.

Supermodel Bundchen Joins Hedge Funds Dumping Dollars

Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world’s richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar.
Like billionaire investors Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, the Brazilian supermodel, who Forbes magazine says earns more than anyone in her industry, is at the top of a growing list of rich people who have concluded that the currency can only depreciate because Americans led by President George W. Bush are living beyond their means.
Bundchen, 27, signed a contract in August to represent Pantene hair products for Cincinnati-based Procter & Gamble Co., she demanded payment in euros, according to Veja, Brazil’s biggest weekly magazine. She’ll also get euros for the deal she reached last October with Dolce & Gabbana SpA in Milan to promote the Italian designer’s new fragrance, The One, Veja reported. Bundchen earned $33 million in the year through June, Forbes reported in July.

(*)

The more they worry and talk about it..

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 10:25 am
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The more they worry and talk about it, the worse the situation would be.
China officials talk up
7 countries considering abandoning USD

A high-ranking official in China’s government recently gave a speech urging the Central Bank to (continue to) diversify its vast holdings of foreign exchange, currently estimated at $1.4 Trillion and rising. The speech was atypical in its level of directness, as Chinese officials tend to speak with a certain degree of circumspection if they think there is any possibility that their comments will reach the public. Specifically, he advocated making a play on the current volatility in forex markets, by selling “weak currencies” in favor of “strong currencies.” In fact, the most recent data shows that China is already doing just that: its holdings of US government bonds have declined even as its reserves have risen.

Why do officials have to talk that much?
Perhaps because they are politicians too.
And trend followers would just follow the price. he he he

(*)

Mr. Bean and the Volatility

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 10:24 am
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The intraday volatility pattern in the major currency pairs would likely to stay the same, thanks to these reasons on why London will keep its role as the center of financial world:
(taken from this link).

  • (US) Financial regulation: After scandals like Enron, the financial industry is more heavily regulated. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act required lots of tightening of financial controls. As a result, it’s less attractive to do business in a country where every transaction is scrutinized.
  • Patriot Act and Dept. of Homeland Security: After 9/11, US security was tightened quite a bit. That means there’s less openness with foreign transactions, travel, and more. In contrast, London is easier to deal with.
  • Time zones: Who wants to keep weird hours? London’s time zone is more favorable for many world areas. Investors, generally outside of the US, who want to keep more regular hours trade on London time.
  • International flavor: With London’s immigrant financial workforce and relatively open work and travel visas, the city’s financial makeup is very internationally diverse. Last year, a Russian pipe manufacturer chose to list with London’s stock exchange rather than NYSE because it’s “very internationally flavored,” a sentiment that is likely echoed by many others with financial interests.

Mr Bean has probably been adding more weight to the image of London’s openness. Imagine having friends like him for a coffee during the market break. Perhaps I could ask him for some advices on the market. lol.

(*)

November 6, 2007

Scalping wisdom

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 8:26 pm
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Some traders have put an enormous amount of time developing scalping strategies. One of them is a German trader named himself as Winwin. Despite of his controversial strategy in the 2007 EA Championship, his wisdom seems to be worth examined:

“….for me there are two scalping techniques.
first technique: in trendmarket take out some trend pips of the trend. if i want it to do in short term there is the problem that in a trend the market is moving fast. i cant set pending orders all the time in championship, because so i would create a very big journal. so i had to use marketorders, but in fast moving markettrends i will nearly always get a reqoute.
second technique: find out a range and trade in the opposite direction on the borders or on some points. but dont trade the whole range, only some pips. so you have more time for a marketorder because it is not a fast moving market.
i will underline, that this is my definition of scalping possibilities. it can be completely wrong to books maybe………..”

His wisdom has sparked an idea of a new strategy in my head. Especially with this idea of modifying a scalping technique to be accepted by most Metatrader brokers. Will discuss it tomorrow with Yogi, the programmer. Can’t wait for tomorrow. lol.
When having hot ideas in the head like this, i feel like being a 10 years old boy who has just been given a pair of new shoe, that he even wears the new shoe to sleep. lol.

(*)

Chart Analysis Excitement

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 5:27 am
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From my observation so far, traders who really love to show the screen shot of their wonderful charts with all those exotic indicators and lines and curves and all, are traders who would not feel comfortable for others to see their actual trading result. Some kind of a negative correlation there between the two things. lol.

Successful traders don’t spend times drawing exotic pictures off their chart. They have a system/method, and always is a simple method. Often they even get very bored to execute their own system by themselves, then they start to delegate the execution of their simple method. At that stage, paying programmers to automate it would be much cheaper than paying traders to execute the (boring) system.

Traders may have their own method, including all the analysis mumbo-jumbo. Yeah, they said that whatever works should be okay. Each traders have their own way. But from my experience, that is not the truth.

Look at the chart posted above. I can be 99% sure that the trader doesn’t want his trading result to be seen by others. But he is so proud of his painting. Yeah, he better buy some paints, brushes, and canvasses and maybe start to set up an art gallery/museum. lol. I mean, look at the chart. It’s so colorfull, so live (lol), even when I zoomed in the chart I felt a litle bit difficult to find out the candles. lol. I was so amazed. lol.

So, another hint here: if a trader still feel excited doing his daily analysis on his charts, using his amazing imagination on each of his analysis, or discussing the fundamental stuffs with his fellow traders in trading forums/chat rooms, perhaps he should take a look at his trading statement to bring him back down to earth and start to realize that it’s not the way to be profitable.

(*)

November 5, 2007

Will we be there?

Filed under: Uncategorized — by TraderMade @ 8:28 am
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If I set a target of a U$10M under management within the next 5 years, would it be something realistic? That would put us in the same competition room with these great names: Galleon Strategic Mgmt, DynexCorp Ltd., FEM Currency Portfolio Ltd, New World Cap’l Mgmt, MIGFX Inc, Overlay Asset Mgmt, Forex Cap’l Mkts, Lambay Capital Limited, Trimmer Cap’l Mgmt, and Ketch Capital Management.
Despite of the good start that we’re up 5% for the month of October which was achieved under a very conservative 10:1 gearing ratio by the Ri-VER algorithm, I still have this question in my head: “Am I dreaming here?”
And please don’t laugh at me when I sing the rainbow song while looking at this table taken from the November issue of Currency Traders Magazine.
Good luck to us!

Somewhere over the rainbow, way up high in the land that I heard of once in a lullaby. Somewhere over the rainbow, skies are blue. And the dreams that you dare to dream really do come true. Someday I’ll wish upon a star and wake up where the clouds are far behind me. Where troubles melt like lemon drops, away above the chimney tops, that’s where you’ll find me. Somewhere over the rainbow, skies are blue. And the dreams that you dare to dream really do come true. If happy little bluebirds fly above the rainbow, why, oh why can’t I?


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