It’s been a while since the last post in this blog.

We’re moving to the next level, we’re trading multi market now, not only FX. So we need a more appropriate tittle and address to host our updates. We’ve been continue writing stuffs at this new address at http://tradermade.wordpress.com.

To our subscribers, please kindly update your subscription to the new address.

Regards,

Darma

This is what we have today. Yay.. !
Finally our clients will get all their money back.

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Another news’ been out today. A fellow (Nickname TripTrap) in the FF forum has just posted Lillian’s reply to his mails.

The Receiver just filed the 2nd report with the Court this week. Below please find the link to our report:

http://www.robbevans.com/pdf/forexlqreport02.pdf

We are filing the motion for the distributions with the Court in a very near future. Once the Court approves our motion, distribution can be made. The hearing date will most likely be scheduled on July 14th. As required by law, the hearing for the motion is required to be scheduled within a reasonable timeline from the time the motion is filed to allow all parties to have a chance to review/oppose to the motion. Therefore, if we file the report in mid-June, the earliest the Court can approve the motion would be somewhere around mid-July.

Very truly yours,

Lillian Lee
Deputy to the Receiver

And there’s also another additional answers from Lillian:

Lillian,

Thank you for the fast reply and all the news!

Do you think it is likely for those that have claims will oppose the motion to distribute funds delaying us even more? Also, how long in these cases does it generally take for the checks to be sent out to the customers once the court approves of the motion?

Sincerely,

———————————————————————————————————-,

I really do not know who will oppose to our motion or how the Court will decide at this point. The possible parties who may oppose to the motion would be FXLQ’s shareholders, mainly Mr. Gray, brokers and creditors (as they won’t receive 100% of their claims, at least not now). Let’s hope that it will not affect the Court’s approval for the distribution to customers.

Based on our other cases, typically the distribution can be made within few weeks (many times within a week) from the Court’s approval.

Regards,
Lillian Lee
Deputy to the Receiver

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Compared to the FX market which i’ve been trading it for the past 6 years now, this HSI market is such a volatility heaven. Its 1min chart has a nice form that’s very suitable for technical trading, thus providing lots of opportunity for doing intraday scalp trades. But need to keep tight SLs because the volatility can also bring hell up to the surface. lol.

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Our baby channel for this morning:

and then dropped downward, sold it at market for a 80pts target.

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Following a successful forward test on the GBPUSD conducted by our friend in Bali, we then realized that this particular system must had a good potential for several other markets with high volatility behavior. The first thing that came up in mind was the Hangseng index. Then we asked for a demo account from our close friend at Topgrowth Futures, where we were once teamed up in developing trading systems and trained their traders last year. We really like their “Pro-iTrading” platform. It’s very responsive, with good spread and commission for trading the Hangseng, very user-friendly interface, making it an ideal platform for running an intraday trading strategy.

And as expected, the system has been going well (so far) in this market. We’re going to continue the test and watch how it will perform. Good luck to us.

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One thing that keeps occurring repeatedly in the fx market is: a beautifully recurring volatility pattern.
Yeap, it’s soooo beautiful.

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After a successful acquisition of a multifinance company in the year of 2006, and heavily restructured the company along 2007, Risenberg launched its first credit hedge arbitrage program. The purpose of the acquisition was to provide an efficient vehicle for Risenberg to develop and run its arbitrage system. The acquisition was a deal worth IDR 10 Billion (USD 1.1 Million). Risenberg partnered with another group of investors in the deal and had been approved by the Department of Finance of Indonesia.

By participating in the program, corporate investors are able to gain an opportunity in an alternative asset class that has a very low correlation to the traditional market (ie. stock and bonds). The program is able to deliver a fixed 11% – 14% annual return to participants. The program exploits a continuous arbitrage opportunity that exclusively accessible only by a small number of players in Indonesia’s interbank money market. This is a close ended investment program, will only be available until a IDR 50 Billion (USD 5.5 Million) is reached.

For more info on the program, please contact Risenberg at www.risenberg.com

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http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

This is an example of an economic calendar that I prefer calling it as “Intraday Volatility Calendar”. The default time stamp is in Eastern Time, so do adjust it to local time to get a better sense of it.

This is where i consider some fundamental analysis- to some extent- is acceptable, that is for volatility anticipation alone, not for directional analysis. And I prefer the word “anticipation”, because I don’t like the word “prediction”, lol.

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Here’s an update on the case:

On March 31, 2008 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an unopposed motion with the United States District Court to extend the March 31, 2008 deadline for FXLQ to reply to the CFTC’s complaint by 60 days or until May 30, 2008. The United States District Court granted the motion on April 2, 2008.

This proposed extension does not affect the Receiver’s intentions to make a recommendation to the United States District Court for an interim distribution to FXLQ’s customers within 60 days.

Visit the receiver’s FXLQ pages.

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We have just added more participants in one of our trading system. The latest one is the proprietary credits desk of Bank Mandiri, the largest bank in Indonesia. We’re still doing some tweaking on our data bridge to make a smooth data exchange between our side and theirs. Our IT people is now installing the bridge in our branch offices to smooth the hedging procedure.

The system is based on some arbitrage approach. All i can say now is it generally exploits interest rate difference between different market levels. Some mild optimization practices have been employed to maximize the profit margin per trade, which now is reaching a 10 basis point.

We are currently running this system for Bank Eksekutif, Bank Bukopin, Bank Muamalat, and several high net worth individuals. An average of 10% to 11% annual yield (nett, after tax) have been delivered to our clients. A maximum of 2%-3.5% drawdown is the level of anticipated short term negative cash flow. It’s not really a draw down because it’s actually in the form of an open trades. We’ve also been considering that forming some offshore business unit where tax regulation is better might increase the efficiency of it. Singapore or Cyprus or Hongkong, perhaps.

We’re now preparing to tap Bank BNI’46 into the system. They have a very deep pool of liquidity which will add more robustness.

Good luck to us!

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“A domino of thoughts”, if you like.
My friend who read my previous blog entry, wrote a deeper thoughts on quals and quants’ approach in investing. He said that both quals and quants share the same key in their investing: consistency and understanding.
And that reminds me of many technical traders who use technical tools like trend lines, mathematical indicators, basic or exotic technical tools, but they never have any consistent method in their trading. They just do a ‘comprehensive analysis’ in each trading decision to be made. And to my knowledge, comprehensive doesn’t necessarily mean applying any method/strategy consistently.
An even more sarcastic coment from a fellow is that he call technical analysts as Mony*t (M*nkey). lol.

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An interesting discussion with one of my CFA teacher over emails after our brief discussion in the class the days before. At the end we both agree that technical analysis is a fail approach in investing.

On Mon, Mar 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM, P.M. wrote:
Untuk yang waktu itu nanya ttg John Simmons, (sorry, lupa namanya), here is the link to John Harris Simmons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies#_note-WSJ
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons

——-start quote—–
Like many other quantitative funds, their RIE Fund had difficulty with the higher volatility environment that persisted throughout the end of ummer 2007. According to an August 10th article in Bloomberg by Katherine urton, “James Simons’s $29 billion Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund has fallen 8.7 percent so far in August when his computer models used to buy and sell stocks were overwhelmed by securities’ price swings. The two-year-old quantitative, or ‘quant,’ hedge fund now has declined 7.4 percent for the year. Simons said other hedge funds have been forced to sell positions, short-circuiting statistical models based on the relationships among securities.”
———-end quote————–

My comments:

John’s track record and methodologies have not stood the test of time.
Almost $4 billion of his total net worth of $5.5 billion only earned in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Last year, his fund suffered as market has swung wildly. Compare that to Warren Buffett’s track record for over 30 decades, which consistenly outperforms market about twice the rate of Standard and Poor’s performance.

And I dont think investment decisions should be delegated to computers.
After all, investment is very subjective and deals heavily with human psychology, which can’t be quantified.

If things get worse, and if the computers still tasked to decide which action to take, we will see another comparable for Long Term Capital
Management, a bankrupt, quantitative hedge fund that also utilised computer model, and had two Nobel prize winners as the directors: Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton.
Check: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_term_capital_management
Attached is the latest letter from Buffet to the shareholders.
Have a good day,

regards,
PM

On 3/17/08, Darma wrote:

Dear Pak PM, a very interesting comment of you, Pak..

we — the quants’ fans — have been very aware of what happened to LTCM.
We’re more considering LTCM as a sample of a mistake that also happen frequently to many discretionary traders. Barings’ Nick Leeson, and the more recent gigantic loss experienced by Societe Generale caused by a reckless discretionary trader is an example of what a big magnitude of a loss, a discretionary trading practice can cause.

In the case of LTCM, those Nobel prize winners were very confident that the low probability events will not happen, much like betting the market wont swing too far away from the twice of it’s standard deviation. Their biggest mistake were they didn’t expect the unexpected to happen. They were dead wrong, and it cost them big.

But a durable quantitative models isn’t about prediction, which we believe is impossible to be done consistently even using any sophisticated mathematical models.

Some durable market models are even done using some simple common sense to exploit some recurring simple market pattern like the “turtles” or any other mechanical trend followers have been doing.

This particular breed of Quants are even expecting the unexpected to happen, an event that will drive the market to make exploitable movement. Some links on this are:

http://www.turtletrader.com/trend_followers
http://www.tradingblox.com/originalturtles/
http://www.turtletrader.com/why.html

You might also want to check on these names: Richard Dennis, Paul Tudor Jones, John W Henry, Ed Seykota, etc.

Although it’s the most popular, but trend following isn’t the only kind of strategy that’s adopted by Quants. Some other kinds are: the range trading strategies, the opening range breakout strategies, etc.

There are a very diverse universe of mechanical trading strategy, ranging from the very short term to the long term strategies. Trend following is only one of them.

I’m getting more interested in knowing your comment on this, Pak. After all, i’m just a learner, a “Quant’s wannabe”, if you like. hehehe…

And I’m very glad to be knowing you, Pak.

—
rgrds,

Darma

On Mon, Mar 17, 2008 at 3:59 PM, PM wrote:
sorry lg sibuk

tapi brief comments: value is not the same with price. Value is what you get, price is what you pay. and this can’t be quantified

and the names that you mentioned never come to my radar. Dont know whether the names appear on the radar of any non-quant fans. If possible, give me the the web links to their strategies, and most important, the performance.
And we will take it from there.

I doubt that their performance will match that of the fundamentalists. If they already outperformed the market for around 20 years (means that they already experienced the bearish period of 1990s and early 2000), then the names may be worth analysing. But if their performance are only accounted for during the bullish period (where everyone is making money, and those who borrow make even bigger money), then these methods have not passed the test of time.

The problem with the trend following is that the method cant predict the turning points (bull all the time during bull period, or bearish all the time during bearish period. The method cant tell when the bear or bull market will end. This is the single biggest weakness of quant (and its siblings: the technical analysis).

Most of us will live to our 70s or 80s (hopefully……..), so I am interested to know which method will pass the test of time so I can live comfortably when I am old. So far, only 2 investment methods worth mentioning: the fundamentalist (if you know what you are doing) and the index investing (if you dont know what you are doing). Other methods, to my knowledge, have failed.

rgds,
PM

Darma to PM

ya pak. very true.
i think an important note is that a true trend following quantitative models arent trying to predict those turning points. predicting turning points is not what “following” means. and i also consider those technical analysts as a dumb group of people, using those lines and mathematical indicators to predict market, trying to outsmart the market. but as long as they still trying to predict, they’ll never be able to perform better than the market.

thanks greatly for the discussion, Pak. I’m learning a lot from it, especially on the test of time thing :):)
–

rgrds,
Darma

PM to me 4:54 PM (18 minutes ago)

sama sama
btw katanya quant fans. Koq sekarang komennya lain? Jadi no fans? yg bener yang mana neh?

rgds,
PM

Darma to PM show details 5:12 PM (2 minutes ago)

hehe, saya quants fan, pak. but not a fan of technical analysis.
they two are very different things. technical analysis and quantitative trading are very different. i always mention technical analysts as “tukang ngecap”, no better then a broken clock. even a broken clock is right twice a day. lol.

using trendlines, mathematical indicators, and all those sounds like sophisticated mathematical formulas, doesn’t mean that one trading using a quantitative strategy, Pak.
the common thing I’ve seen is those technicians trade the market using discretionary strategy, they even don’t know what a positive expectancy of a strategy is.
Yes, they use those technical analysis mumbo jumbo, to give a rocket scientist like of explanation to back their BS prediction. hehehe..

rgrds,
Darma

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Have just successfully completed a Windows Mobile 6 treatment for my Treo 750v (HTC Cheetah). It’s available for free for Treo handheld devices at Palm’s website until October 2008.
The most interesting benefit is that after the upgrade, plugging in the 750v device to USB sync cable will also recharge the battery. I used to bring the charger everywhere I go because it wasn’t recharging when connected to the computer with the sync/data cable like what it does with my previous Ipaq PDA.

Regarding the possibility to use the device as a wireless modem with it’s wireless sharing utility, creating a virtually close-range hotspot, I haven’t tried this yet since there’s no bluetooth in my laptop.

Go to Palm’s website for this free treatment.

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Reading analysis and market recommendation by some analysts in the newspaper, or in my email inbox, or in Friendster bulletin board (yeah, there’s one there), reminds me of this Polish proverb:

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I have just read this wikipedia entry on Renaissance Technology (www.rentec.com), an investment management firm founded by John H. Simon. It’s the world’s largest hedge fund, handling assets worth USD 35.4 billion.

Some interesting points:

• It uses market modelling, mechanically process market (price) data to generate trade decisions.
• It trades easily traded financial instruments, not exploiting any complex instruments.
• The models generally perform badly in highly volatile market.
• They don’t use high leverage.

Some excerpt from the wikipedia entry:

Scientifically based investment strategy
For over two decades, Renaissance has been at the forefront of research in mathematics and economic analysis. Renaissance employs more than 150 scientific specialists, including mathematicians, physicists, astrophysicists and statisticians, half of whom have a PhD, who review market data to find statistical relationships that predict the price movements of commodities, currencies and stocks. These employees come from countries as diverse as Japan and Cuba [3].

Renaissance uses computer-based models to predict price changes in easily-traded financial instruments. These models are based on analyzing as much data as can be gathered, then looking for non-random movements to make predictions. Renaissance represents a validation of the quantitative trading model and trades with such high frequency that it (the Nova fund, specifically) accounts for over 10% of all the trades occurring on NASDAQ some days.

It is worth noting that Nova trades execute purely electronically on direction from a computer model. Medallion fund trades are (in large part) executed through a trading desk, whose goal is to increase the value of the positions the model directs the desk to take by timing market trends and executing in novel fashions (including intra-desk trading).

Renaissance trades at margin levels uncharacteristically low among hedge funds. This allows them to significantly reduce exposure risk, while the efficiency of their computational model allows for consistently high returns.

Like many other quantitative funds, their RIE Fund had difficulty with the higher volatility environment that persisted throughout the end of summer 2007. According to an August 10th article in Bloomberg by Katherine Burton, “James Simons’s $29 billion Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund has fallen 8.7 percent so far in August when his computer models used to buy and sell stocks were overwhelmed by securities’ price swings. The two-year-old quantitative, or ‘quant,’ hedge fund now has declined 7.4 percent for the year. Simons said other hedge funds have been forced to sell positions, short-circuiting statistical models based on the relationships among securities.”

It has just received approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to operate in the nation’s stock markets as a foreign institutional investor (FII), according to a report in the Business Standard. (CNBC).

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Traders prefer using OTC Spot FX to exploit movement in the currency market. Although generally is not regulated in some extent, OTC spot FX provides a much more flexible trading condition compared to exchange traded currency futures (CME). This includes the minimum initial capital required to open an account, and the availability of a very flexible position sizing (you can trade 1 unit at oanda or micro lots at several FX brokers), and also the automatic rollover practice (i was told that exchange traded currency futures contracts need to be closed and automatically re-opened at the end of every trading day, resulting difficulties to track P/L of a certain mid-term positions).

But as we can see, the global currency market is still in its very early development stage. Regulation and market structure are still looking for its best form. One recent development is the introduction of the FX Spot Equivalent Futures contracts (SEFs), introduced by the U.S. Futures Exchange (www.usfe.com) in Chicago.

SEFs replicate spot foreign exchange markets in a U.S. regulated exchange environment. Trading is the same as on over-the-counter platforms, but with the customer protections and transparency of a regulated and cleared U.S. futures exchange.

Brokers available for trading this SEFs are: Lind-Waldock, MF Global Futures (Chicago), Daniels Trading, Infinity Futures, and MF Global Direct (UK).

More pointers:

• Immediately access continuous markets with competitive bid/ask spreads provided by USFE’s dedicated market makers
• Enjoy the opportunity to place orders and get filled inside the quoted market
• Have your positions automatically rolled forward at the end of each day at no cost
• Receive or pay a fair positive or negative end-of-day carry, with no bid/ask spread applied
• Trade with all the safety, security, and protections that a fully U.S. regulated and cleared futures exchange provides

More info:
U.S. Futures Exchange
141 W. Jackson Blvd., Suite 1460
Chicago, IL 60604
T +1 312-356-3900
F +1 312-356-3901

A buddy in the Forexfactory Forum posted today an update in a thread regarding the FXLQ crisis.

I spoke to a lady at the receiver law firm. They are awaiting FXLQ and other associated parties for responses, by February 15th.

Then, they will await until March 31st until they make any formal recommendations to the judge… as FXLQ may file for appeal or settle something with CFTC by then. FXLQ has $26million in cash, and $30million in liability. They need to get $6 million to be back in business… a seemingly trivial sum of cash in this business and to meet excess fund requirements.

If in fact there is dissolution, they will recommend that retail clients have priority.

Funds will be returned within two months of March 31st….

This has been a nice indication that trading with a regulated broker, even if it’s an OTC kind of market, still is a wise choice. In an event like this, clients have a proper protection. But we’ll need to wait for another 3 months to get this premise be proven completely.

(*)

Cash is a business’ lifeblood. CASH, if managed well, a company will remain healthy and strong. Managed poorly, a company will go into some cardiac arrest.
When cash management hasn’t been considered an important issue, then the company’s short-term stability and it’s long-term survival might be in danger.
Today i have just found out that a poorly managed cash flows between branch offices might harm a business severely.
Will fix the issue immediately.
A first priority now.
Forming a centralized treasury system might be the answer. Some internet banking bridge between branch offices might need to be tapped. Klik BCA is the first choice but will study what the other banks might offer in this particular problem.
And some fresh cash injection might be needed too.
A very important lesson learned today.
‘Doohhhhh!!

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Have been looking for several alternatives of charting or trading platform for Indonesia Stock Market (BEI). There must be some securities who have their own online trading platform, such as the Etrading (www.etrading.co.id), havent found another yet. And some non-broker data providers are the RTI and IMQ.
Havent tried any of them, tho. It’d be nice if theres some trading platform with an integrated charting module where some realtime simulation can be done. Metastock could be the one. Need to ask around about that one.
Have also found this ChartNexus free platform, with free 3 years historical data for Indonesian stocks, but unfortunately there’s no intraday, and can not be used to do some demo or trading simulation. But it can be used to backtest some end-of-day strategy by using their paid expert module.

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According to this latest press release regarding the case in CFTC’s website (January 10), the hearing would be at January 28, 2008.

…the CFTC filed an ex parte motion seeking an order imposing a blanket freeze on FXLQ’s assets, ensuring access to FXLQ’s books and records by representatives of the Commission, and appointing a temporary receiver to marshal FXLQ’s assets. The Court granted this motion and entered a statutory restraining order (SRO). The Court then scheduled a hearing for January 4, 2008 to allow the Defendant to show cause why the SRO should not remain in place and why a preliminary injunction should not be entered finding that FXLQ violated the CEA, and ordering FXLQ not to violate the CEA. Recently, the show cause hearing was rescheduled to January 28, 2008.

It would be next week. In the meantime, the court has orderd that the assets to be under the control of the Court-appointed Receiver Robb Evans & Associates LLC. The Receiver will post the most current information at http://www.robbevans.com/html/forexlq.html.

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It’s been always interesting to find another FX broker, especially the ones those are located in UK, where FSA watchdogging the brokerage business there.
Moreover, this ActivTrades® broker (www.activtrades.com) use Mt4 as their FX trading platform.
Here are some info from their website:

ActivTrades® is located in London and registered with the Financial Service Authority under ref nr 434413. We offer direct access brokerage on all major financial markets combined with the latest and best integrated platforms/solutions for trading Futures, Options, CFDs and Forex instruments.

Direct access to the market.

ActivTrades® provides quick and reliable access for trading the following instruments:

• Futures and Options on all major markets like CME, CBOT, NYMEX, COMEX, LIFFE, EUREX, IDEM and Euronext, including open outcry markets.
• CFDs on most traded futures, including CFDs on stock indexes, interest rates and commodities, with guaranteed stops and narrow spreads.
• Forex trading on as many as 28 amongst the most traded currency pairs, plus Gold and Silver, with narrow spreads, competitive swap rates and guaranteed stops.

We allow futures, CFD and Forex trading with extremely low margin requirements. Our platforms display real-time market prices and depth of market screens where provided, using the very latest routing and risk technologies. We pride ourselves on lightning-fast execution and confirmation supported by our dedicated customer service team. Forex and CFDs are traded through MetaTrader4.

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I am going to base the following view with a certain definition of trend following: entering trades when the market start to go in a certain way, maintaining the open trades as long as the market still move in the same direction, and finally exit the trades when the expected trend discontinued. Purely following. The purest form of this strategy can be seen in Curtis’ white paper that was able to be downloaded freely in his website several years ago. Another form of a pure trend following system can be found in Michael Covel’s first book.

So..
In my experience, trading intraday in the FX market by purely following the trend like that, wouldn’t work as good as when we do a pure trend following system in the daily timeframe. The volatility behavior of the intraday price movement would kill the system by producing too many whipsaws. Even if we used some advanced entry technique to exploit a running trend by using multiple entry like what the turtles do, the wild volatility in intraday FX market is a beast can not be tamed with that prescription.
Using a pure trend following system to trade the intraday FX market would be like asking Mr. Bean cleaning your office desk. It would be such a terrible mess. lol.

Intraday market has its own characteristic, thus need to be handled with different approach.
Would elaborate more into that in another posts next time.

(*)

.

After reading my online buddy’s blog entry about MAE/MFE analysis, i thought it’d be worth posting this note about how we calculate stop loss level based on ATR (Average True Range).

Using a fix n pips distance for SL and/or TP is the simplest way a trader would do. But sometimes, the market would perform differently from time to time. Sometimes the market moves wildly with longer candle body, sometimes it moves very calmly with a very low volatility. A fix n pips SL/TP wouldn’t fit into the always changing market’s volatility behavior.

Moreover, we surely want to test a strategy in several different currency pairs. And because each pair would have different volatility behavior, using an ATR-derived SL/TP level would provide us with a system that can literally self-fit into any kind of volatility behavior.

These are some sample lines from our strategy. It calculates ATR first:

atr_SL = iATR(Symbol(), 0, prm_normalization_atr_period, 1) * prm_SL2atr_ratio;

and then this atr_SL value is used to calculate SL distances as follows:

stoploss = NormalizeDouble(Ask + atr_SL, Digits);

so the value of the SL distance would be based on ATR, not a fix n pips.

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We have noticed a significant difference in the performance of our systems in several brokers. We have been wondering what may be the cause of it. When we examined the situation more closely, we found that an exact same algorithm has produced fewer trades in a more-filtered price feed environment.

How can this happen? Well, generally, the OTC FX market is a bilateral market, between the market-maker type broker with the traders. Thus the price quoted by each brokers would not be the exact same price. Some brokers apply some filtering algorithm for their feed, creating a smoother chart that may effect the performance of certain trading systems.

So, we have just added some adjustment into one of our algorithm, by adding/subtracting a certain pips off the trigger level as can be seen in the picture below:

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.

Forexquant is wishing everyone a great new year and a joyful Christmas.

I hope you’ll have a great holiday while I’ll have to gather with my branch managers, conducting a year-end meeting this week in Jakarta.

We’ll be shaping up for a brighter future. Good luck to us!

(*)

.

In a pdf file found in CFTC website (court complaint details document), it is stated that the deficit is now only a $3 million (as of December 13, 2007). This means that a nearly $8 million were coming during the period between Dec 7 to Dec 13. And still several days before the hearing on Jan 4, 2008.
Good luck to us

(*)

.

CFTC’s number: as of December 7, the adjusted net capital deficit is $11.6.
But, according to several clients who contacted FXLQ for updates on the situation, there has been several million dollars incoming wires into FXLQ’s account at US banks/FCM since the MRA took place. We don’t have any numbers on how many millions they are actually.

Here is the complete copy of the press release on December 19, 2007:

Release: 5426-07
For Release: December 19, 2007

CFTC Sues Futures Commission Merchant Forex Liquidity LLC Alleging Undercapitalization in Excess of $11.6 Million

Washington, DC – The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that on December 13, 2007, it sued Forex Liquidity LLC (Forex Liquidity), a registered Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) in Santa Ana, California, charging it with being undercapitalized in excess of $11.6 million and also with failing to maintain required books and records.

On December 14, 2007, the CFTC won an asset freeze and other emergency relief that will enable the Commission to freeze the remaining assets of Forex Liquidity and safeguard the interests of its customers.

According to the CFTC complaint, as of November 30, 2007, and perhaps earlier, Forex Liquidity’s net capitalization was below the minimum required by the Commission. As a Forex Dealer Member of the National Futures Association (NFA) offering to be the counterparty to retail customer foreign currency transactions, Forex Liquidity is required to have a minimum adjusted net capital of $1 million; instead, according to the complaint, as of December 7, 2007, it had an adjusted net capital deficit of approximately $11.6 million.

Forex Liquidity is also alleged to have been unable to produce required financial documentation regarding its assets and liabilities. For example, according to the CFTC’s complaint, Forex Liquidity represented in reports and discussions with NFA that its assets at one time included a $35 million ABN-AMRO bond located in Switzerland. The complaint further alleges that Forex Liquidity represented to the NFA that the ABN-AMRO bond (or its proceeds) were transferred to a U.S. registered broker dealer, Commonwealth Financial Network (CFN); however, CFN does not have an account for Forex Liquidity and the account number that the defendant provided to NFA was fictitious.

Accordingly, the CFTC also charged Forex Liquidity with failure to maintain books and records of its business transactions, specifically, current ledgers that accurately reflect its assets and liabilities.

In the ongoing action in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, the CFTC seeks an order of permanent injunction against the defendant, monetary penalties, and other relief. The Honorable Cormac J. Carney, U.S. District Judge, issued the restraining order freezing the assets of Forex Liquidity and prohibiting the defendant from destroying documents or denying CFTC staff access to books and records.

The CFTC appreciates the assistance of the National Futures Association in this action.

The following CFTC Division of Enforcement staff members are responsible for this matter: Peter Haas, Richard Foelber, Paul Hayeck, and Joan Manley.
Last Updated: December 19, 2007

Hopefully, we’ll get more facts in the hearing scheduled for January 4, 2008. If they’re good numbers, some other FCMs might be interested in buying the business. In that case, an approximately 1 month would be needed to complete the whole process and we’ll be able to resume trading on our clients’ accounts.

(*)

.

Here is an email FXLQ sent to our client.
We’ll be waiting for the hearing in the District Court on January 4, 2008.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007
RE: Account # 1xxxx

To our Valued Clients:

We have temporarily suspended operations due to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission lawsuit filed against the company in Federal Court. Please be assured that as soon as we are able, we will return any messages.

There is a hearing in the U.S. District Court scheduled for January 4, 2008 where we hope to resolve all issues the CFTC has with our company.

Thank you,

Forex Liquidity LLC

(*)

.

Several short term trading systems we have been developing for the FX market relays heavily on the distinctively unique and consistent nature of volatility behavior between market’s sessions.

We even haven’t found any ways to substitute our time-constraint filters with something purely derived from price-only data. It’s like we actually have a different kind of market for each session that is divided by a rigid time mark, not by some hints those can be found in price action.

This has been bringing some serious thought for us, because we thought that we have to stick to our philosophy to relay our systems purely on price action. But then we realize that the market has the dimension of time along with the dimension of price.

And to our surprise, I found this interesting observation by Mr. Steenbarger, Ph.D. In one of his post today in his blog, he stated a similar conclusion as ours:

What we can see is that these seem to be different markets. Indeed, the daily correlations among the three range from .12 to .18, suggesting that what the market does during one time period is only very weakly related to what it will do in the next one.

Although his research is about the stock market, particularly the S&P, this has put us into believing that time dimension is very truly exists, as we also been observing the same phenomenon in the FX market.

This confirmation from Mr. Steenbarger’s research has put a new item to our research agenda, that we will need to check market’s average range for each session. This would probably be useful for developing a better opening range breakout model, by having a better measurement of the opening range width. And for our range trading model, we might get a better basis for the entry and exit strategy. The keyword would be determining the historical and average range of sessions.

(*)

.

Some interesting ongoing discussions in FF Forum, at page 3, page 4, and 5 of a thread regarding the recent MRA to FXLQ.
Some points in the discussion:

• This is not another Refco. This one is very different. Not a bankruptcy story.
• Client’s funds are in separated bank account. The amount is sufficient to cover all client’s withdrawal request, but the NFA wants to see available cash in the amount that’s exceeding all company’s liabilities before approving distributions.
• Executives of FXLQ are said to be doing their best to pull in all of their funds located off shore. Several incoming wire in multi million dollars were done, and still more to come to meet NFA’s requirement.
• Obviously, NFA has a certain agenda. The request to pull in all funds to US-banks was on Monday, and the MRA took place the day after (Tuesday). Everybody knows that repatriating millions of dollars especially if a large sum of them are in the form of bonds is not a one-day procedure.

Still, all we can do is just wait for things to unfold and observe any news and rumors. lol.
Anybody wants some beers?

(*)

.

Early today I received a PM from one of my online buddy, asking about the money management we use in our trading. I agree that this topic is a very important aspect of trading.
We generally have 3 kinds of money management:

1. Fix number of contract per trade. This is used for testing purpose, to provide a clear profile on the risk/reward ratio of a developed system.
2. A fix gearing ratio. we mainly use this MM method for our live trading. We usually use a ratio of 10. For example, while trading a USD 20k account, we’ll trade the EURUSD with a 200k contract size. This might be translated as two standard lots in certain brokers, or 20 mini lots, or just a simple 200,000 unit when we trade with a non-lot broker like Oanda. When we trade an account with a system on two pairs, we would divide it equally between the pairs. In the example above, if we trade the system on a 20k account, and we’d like it trades on EURUSD, and EURGBP, and GBPUSD, and EURCHF, then we’ll trade them by 5 mini lots each. Sometimes we’ll use a bigger gearing ratio, but 20 is the maximum we could go. This will depends on the backtest result, particularly the maximum Drawdown, which we prefer to be no more than 30%.
3. A certain %-age risk per trade. We have this kind of MM on several of our well-developed long term trend following systems. First, the stop losses are calculated based on some volatility measurement. Then the lot size is calculated based on this. Each trade would be assigned a maximum of 2% to 5% risk on the capital. When we trade several instrument on the same account, we would also divide the lot size equally between them.

There are many sources regarding this matter. Using an “Optimal F” should be interesting to be tested, as proposed by several authors. But to this date, none of our systems use this kind of MM. It’s a very interesting one, tho.

I hope this is clear. please spark more question if there’s anything else I could answer, or you might have some suggestions for me. Thanks in advance.
Meanwhile, I’ll have a cup of coffee.

(*)

After the upside-down in the Metatrader brokerage business following the new regulation regarding minimal capital requirement of FCM took place, bigger corporations have started to adopt MT4. Perhaps they start to realize the magnet of MT4 in attracting a significant portion of the retail trader customers.

Among several big names we know who adopt MT4 are FXCM and RCG (Rosenthal Collins Group). FXCM is still planning on this move, it is said to be ready in 2008, if there is enough interest in it.

Meanwhile, we’ve been demoing RCG’s MT4 for several days now. They have a sub-pips spread. As we can see here in the tick chart screen shot below, EUR/USD was traded with a sub-2 pips spread during London/European session:

This information below is taken from tradeviewforex’s website:

• Recently ranked by Futures magazine as #21 out of the top 50 brokers in the world
• Second largest independent FCM
• $46 million of net capital
• $735 million in customer assets, 20,000 accounts, assets over 4 billion
• Can trace its roots back to 1923
• Online accounts: streamlined setup, don’t necessarily need to provide license or utility bill, approval within 24 hours, all money transfers will be in customers account by end of day (typical time is 24-48 hours) enabling trading to begin immediately.
• 15 offices worldwide
• 24 hour trading support
• Straight pass through for unprecedented trade execution
• Three options for accounts: Tighter spreads, higher interest, or straight through processing
• Utilizes familiar MetaTrader 4 software
• You want to place your hard-earned money with a stable, well-capitalized brokerage firm. We have been around for over 80 years, and our financial standing is only getting stronger. Over the past two years, our Customer Funds increased by an astounding 63%. For more information on our solid financial record, see our 2006 financial statements.

But still, we’re looking for a UK-based MT4 broker now.

(*)

We have just received this notification regarding automatic rollover of open position.
Although we have been inactivating our robots since we received the MRA news on December 4, it is good to know that their dealers are still doing their job.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007
RE: Account # 1XXXX

Dear Valued Client:

Please be reminded that your FXLQ Customer Agreement provides for automatic rollover of positions which are not closed during the course of a trading day.

Due to the recent Member Responsibility Action issued by National Futures Association, we are requesting that all clients inform us immediately if they wish to revoke this ongoing assent to automatic rollovers.

If you choose to revoke this ongoing assent to automatically rollover positions, they will be liquidated at market at the end of the trading day, unless you contact us each day to direct us to rollover your open positions during the trading day.

Best Regards,
Forex Liquidity LLC

And up to now, the MT4 client platform is still well connected to FXLQ server, providing live quotes uninteruptably, and the balance of our clients’ funds are still the same as it were.
Maybe they haven’t processed our wd requests yet, but all these facts add more confidence regarding the safety of the funds.

More updates later.

(*)

We have just received an update from our contact. It is said that there are two NFA officers in FXLQ’s office today, supervising the process of fund withdrawals to make sure it goes properly. This should add more confidence for a clean finish on this matter.
I need some fresh air. Still holding my breath, tho..

(*)

Perhaps it’s the coldest one. Because i can even feel it from here when having this conversation with my contact. I hope things are going well.

Darma: dear P, if you hear any news pls let us know. thanks
P: I will
P: did you send the form?
Darma: yes we have sent the form
Darma: in the case document, i saw this that makes me worry:
“FXLQ is prohibited from distributing, disbursing or transferring any
funds, including to existing customers, without the prior approval of
NFA.”
P: You should have the funds in 3 days
P: from today
Darma: wouldn’t be any delay because of the need for NFA approval for each transfer of money?
P: I don’t think so
P: your money is seperate from the firms money
Darma: and P.. I and my client still trust you. if you have any suggestion on brokers we should choose, pls advice
P: ok , thank you
P: I’m sorry about what happened
P: I will call FXLQ again later
Darma: thank you. i hope we wont get any delays.
Darma: this makes me nervous, actually
P: there shouldn’t be
P: I’ll call later
Darma: you know better the regulation and the situation there.
Darma: yes, please let me know anything you can get.
P: it also happened to One World Forex
Darma: btw, how are you? it is winter there, isnt it?
P: they are cracking down
P: yes
P: COLD
P: I don’t like the cold
P: how about you?
Darma: do you have plan for christmas or new year?
P: no
Darma: im fine, except with this fxlq thing. my multifinance business is going well. as well as the chemicals
P: not yet
P: good for you
P: I need to shower now
Darma: ok P.. good luck to us!
P: you’ll be fine
P: I’ll call them later
P: and make sure
Darma: ok thank you
Darma: thanks.

I prefer spring over winter

(*)

We have just received this notification letter from FXLQ.
I immediately discussed it with our clients and we decided to send a withdrawal request.
The completed forms have been sent several hours ago, and we’ll see hows it gonna be.
Wish us luck!

Tuesday, December 04, 2007
RE: Account # 1XXXX

To our Valued Clients:

The National Futures Association has today issued a Member Responsibility Action against FXLQ. You can find the notice on the NFA’s website: http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/Details.aspx?entityid=0362216&rn=Y.

Effective immediately, FXLQ is not allowed to take on any new customer positions. Therefore, all of our systems have been set to allow only rollover and liquidations.

We apologize for any inconvenience this has caused, and direct you to our website if you wish to withdraw your funds: www.fxlq.com/docs.

We are working diligently to clear this up as quickly as possible and look forward to renewing a full relationship with our customers.

Sincerely,

Robert Gray
President
Forex Liquidity LLC

And now we need to find a good UK-based MT4 broker to tap our robots in.

(*)

(picture is taken from offthemarkcartoon)

This is my note I wrote last year. It was about the correlation between poor macroeconomic figures and the poor role of the profession of pharmacist in Indonesia that then leads to the lack of public appreciation to the profession. I think it might be worth posting it here.

Mr. Pharmacists, just Stop Blaming Others and Yourselves!

Around 10 years ago, during my study in the university, I involved myself quite deeply in the student organization, especially in the field of the professional role of pharmacist in Indonesia’s health care system. Since that time until now, it has been a common topic among pharmacists and pharmacy students that the profession of pharmacist in Indonesia isn’t appreciated as good as it is in other countries.

Discussions sometimes led to the blaming of other professions, especially doctors, who are said to be taking over pharmacists’ role in the health care system. Doctors dispense medication to patients to get the benefit of the business, or even the full of corruption practice of drug prescription by doctors who seek to get direct benefits from pharmaceutical industries such us bonuses, prizes, sponsorships, etc.

Some discussions also lead to the blaming of the lack of a proper regulation on the national health care system. Then it blames the absence of pharmacist in the parliament and other strategic position in the government.

All these, then lead to useless bashings, debates, and also (useless) efforts to make the better appreciation of the profession of pharmacist in Indonesia.

I too, once tried several efforts at that time during my study time in the uni. Joining with other peers, we successfully started the weekly radio talkshow by pharmacy students in the hope of the better appreciation to pharmacists by the public. The program is now still running and formalized in the student organization. I’m happy for that. And we also pioneered the internship session for students during holiday session in several pharmacies and industries arround Bandung. This was hoped to give an earlier exposures to pharmacy students to the reality of their profession in the community, compared to the school programs to do the thing at the very end of the study time. Then we encouraged other fellow students to get an early involvement in the pharmacist profession organisation (ISFI), attending discussions and seminars, and we even organized a national seminar to take a closer look at the possibility that the curriculum and the regulation on the education themselves lack somethings that leads to the problems.

But, after all those efforts and thoughts, I then realize that such things won’t generate significant effect for the better role of pharmacists in Indonesia’s health care system. I then realized the the country’s poor macroeconomic figure is the cause. This has been the fundamental cause of it.

Take a look at Indonesia’s current GDP per capita. The number is arround USD 1,600. Even if this figure is normalized with the cost of living, that will result in the number of GDP(PPP) per capita of USD 3,900-4,500 (variable numbers resulted from various methods by various insitutions), this number is way too low compared to countries with acceptably proper role of pharmacist in their health care system.

For example, United States and some European countries, where the profession of pharmacist is considered to be a role model by idealists, have their number between USD 25,000 – 40ks. That is a well 10-20 folds of Indonesia’s. Even Malaysia and Singapore have USD 12k and 30k respectively. Thus I think comparing the role of the profession of pharmacist in Indonesia with what they have in those countries would be absurd.

I do really appreciate and respect my fellow pharmacists who dedicate their fullest effort for a better situation and some have really gained appreciation in several working environments.

But, by realizing at this fact, idealist pharmacists in forums and discussion boards should have a more realistic view on the problem. You wont open an authorized Mercedes-Benz service center in a poor village and then expect villagers to treat you as an important person in their life there, will you? They use motorcycles, for rice shake! Trying to convince the villagers to buy Mercedes sedans because it is good and provide a safer mean of transportation would lead to frustration.

I welcome any comments and feedbacks on this.
Rgrds.

(*)

I’ve came to a conclusion that a strong entrepreneurial passion and experience I have and the business tradition from the family would not be enough for handling one of our newest unit in Jakarta. At the very first glance, this course materials might help:

Financial Statement Analysis and Corporate Finance (16 sessions)
Ethics and Basic Investment Tools (Quantitative Analysis and Economics) (18 sessions)
Asset Valuation and Portfolio Management (20 sessions)
Review Class + Mock Up Exam & Explanatory (10 sessions)
Total     64 sessions

Ethical and Professional Standard
Economics*
Quantitative Analysis
Financial Statement Analysis**
Asset Valuation***
Portfolio Management

* For level 3, Economics include in Portfolio Management
** For Level 1 and 2, Corporate Finance include in Financial Statement Analysis
*** Include Market & Instruments, Equity, Debt, Derivative and Alternative  Investments.
For level 3, Derivative include in Portfolio Management

But then I’ve also found information in a discussion board in CFA Indonesia Study Group, that the things can be learned by only buying the book set from the CFA Institute and some other useful books. Therefore, attending a course isn’t needed. And it was even said that buying the book and set materials from the CFA institute is a prerequisite for doing the internationally standardized assessment test.
Well, I’m not more into doing the test, but just need to get a good grip on the subjects.

(*)

.
Thanks to R who consistently posts useful articles in his journal. This time he posted a link to an article at the economist.com. The most interesting thing for me in that article is these paragraphs. It is stated that,

To show how this works, Messrs Frydman and Goldberg examine the PERSISTENT failure of economists to predict movements in the currency markets. According to Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard who has long attempted to find rational models for predicting currency fluctuations, “it is stunning how hard it is to explain movements in exchange rates.”

All the models based on rational expectations now say that, on fundamentals, the euro is overvalued against the dollar, he reckons. But does that mean the dollar will soon rise? Mr Rogoff says he has no idea.

In rational-expectations theory, a range of variables including inflation, interest rates and growth should have a predictable impact on currency movements, but in practice this theory has proved less useful for forecasting than tossing a coin. Among rational economists, the debate is over “whether the glass is 5% full or 95% empty,” he says. Only over longer periods—say two to four years—is there any evidence of exchange-rate predictability, which is far too long to be useful to traders or policymakers.

So, isn’t it clear now.. just stop predicting.
Develop a trading model. Not a prediction model.

(*)

.

I have just read R’s blog entry with a link to a paper about alternative investment and I’ve scan-read the paper. In exhibit #1, it was mapped, the universe of traditional and alternative investment asset class.

But I couldn’t find there, any investment products in forex/futures market especially those are based on algorithmic trading. I thought it was under the hedge fund class, but it wasn’t.

I’ve been wondering what is the perspective of the investment industry towards FX-based investment products? Does it really not belong to any of those asset classes, does it really not considered as a proper opportunity of investment by institutional investors? I’ve never took any courses in investing so i’d like to know how the investment in fx market (especially the ones based on systematical trading systems) are viewed by the investment industry.

I know some professional and well known FX managers, like the Dynex Corp, and several Managed Account products are also offered by regulated FX businesses, but where do all these belong to in the investment asset class map? Could anyone shed some light on this? Thanks in advance.

(*)

.

I have had a discussion in Pradeep Bonde’s post at TG’s blog. He stated that traders should burn their chart, because chart reading is a long enduring cult in the market. So then he advice traders to burn their chart. lol.

Well, i do agree with him that chart reading is wrong. I often called it as “technical analysis mumbo jumbo”. Drawing lines, discretionarily analyzing the market. They really are cult, imo. LOL. But don’t burn your chart.

It’s like many man died in an open combat, although they bring their weapons. it doesn’t mean that a soldier should throw away their weapon and burn it because of that fact.

In my humble opinion, the same goes for chart and price action in trading. It is not the chart and price action that is not useful. It is the lack of a system to follow that make traders fail. To make money in the market, one should first gather a sufficient amount of knowledge, then develop their system, then evaluate them, then measure the risk profile of the system to determine the proper gearing ratio to suit the risk acceptance of the traders/investors, then follow the system with discipline. Some key points in system development must be considered, especially avoiding curve fitting, optimization, etc.

And by doing all these sequence of system development and ended up by disciplinely trading a system, a price-action-only trader would make money in the market. No need to consider other information such as the earnings, interest rate, nor any other fundamental info. They are nothing but noises.

But yes, many people has fallen into the endless forest of chart reading. Chart reading is not the proper way of using the chart. Developing a system based on price action should be the answer. Do not burn your chart because one will go to the combat zone unarmed because he believes that the fundamental gods will protect him after his praying session. Earnings report, etc is not the instrument to be traded. Price is. Then, just trade the price.
Many money managers and hedge funds get into trouble because they burn their chart.

So, in short words: chart reading is the wrong way of using charts. Do not burn your charts. Use them properly. Do not chart reading… but instead: develop a price-action-only system. It works. At least for me.

Here is Mr. Pradeep’s piece. I couldn’t find the page in TG’s blog anymore, perhaps it’s been deleted to avoid the increasingly tensed discussion by the many angry members of the cult. lol.

Chart reading is a long enduring cult in the market. Beginner traders are quickly grabbed by the simplicity of charts reading techniques and chart patterns. They waste countless hours and years perfecting chart reading and making sub optimal returns. Many get so lost in the technical analysis jungle, that they never find profitable way out of it.

If chart reading was the way to success in market, there would be millions of trading millionaire. After all how much time does it take to read a book on chart reading and chart patterns , probably a day. It is so easy according to practitioners of the esoteric arts that if you are of average intelligence you should master it in few days. Once you do that lo and behold, you will have trading success. The reality is far from it.

All that chart reading and chart patterns tells you is very simple and basic market framework like trend line, support and resistance. If you try and trade with such a simplistic framework, you are unlikely to make much money.

Path to profitability in trading starts by unlearning your technical analysis framework. Burn your charts,learn new market paradigm and your profits will increase.

So, be carefull when ‘experts’ tell you something. They aren’t necessarily always right.

(*)

From Grace Cheng’s blog today:

The BOE quarterly inflation report prompted long profit-taking actions in the British Pound after the bank said it could comfortably allow interest rates to drop from their current level of 5.75% to around 5% without inflation getting out of control.
BOE governor King said he expects GDP growth to slow “sharply” in 2008 and the bank forecasts at least one rate cut in 2008.
“Further financial market fallout, either at home or overseas, poses the biggest downside risk to activity,” the report said.
EUR/GBP rallied to a 4-year high while GBP/USD fell 200 pips today to around 2.0660.

Fundamentally noisy. LOL. So now everyone should trade the market based on a rate hike due next year? That’s how analysts got their job, isnt it?

And market gurus wud say “buy rumors, sell facts”. Ya ya ya..
I’d prefer we just “Buy/Sell the FACT”. No rumors.
Only the FACT. No Noises.

(*)

.

Still inspired by the same article as in my previous post, the author suggested a form of a “Modern Day Darvas Method”,

Here are a few ways a modern-day Darvas might prevent micromanaging trades:
* Use Your Platform Tools. Set it and forget it. Whether you have sophisticated tools like bracket orders or just the basics, use the tools your broker has provided to help you structure your trades in such a way that they have the ability to play out without needing your constant supervision. This will help you to trade without emotion and allow you to fully implement your strategy for the trade from start to finish.
* Hide The Number. I’ve written about hiding the number before, and I think it can be quite beneficial, whether it’s your account balance or even just your P&L on trades. A trader friend of mine claims that hiding his P&L has made the biggest positive impact in his trading – more than any tools or indicators. It’s an interesting concept, particularly if you find yourself overreacting to every little pullback or advance. By giving his broker trade instructions ahead of time, Darvas didn’t watch his P&L or spook himself out of trades.
* Turn off the news flow. Darvas found that his absence from the Street allowed him to stay in trades longer so that he could let his original game plan play out. That means he was not surrounding himself with rumors or opinions or the news flow. He didn’t make bets based on gut feel – he stuck to the charts, trading from the price action when opportunies arose. If for you that means turning off CNBC, avoiding comparing opinions with your trading buddies by staying off of instant messenger or Skype, then so be it. Whatever helps you make your money is what you need to focus on. Remember, Silence is Golden!

Yes, they are indeed good tips. But if the method above are called “Modern”, what then he’ll call this method below:

• Define the strategy into the fullest details,
• Write them into a working algorithm,
• Backtest,
• Evaluate,
• Modify & improve,
• Re-test,
• Re-evaluate,
• Fine tune,
• Another re-test,
• Validation test,
• Let the strategy be automated through any growing number of supporting brokers.

Will these sequence of strategy automation produce a new method called as “Post-Modern Darvas” then? LOL.

(*)
Postmodern architecture

.

I’ve came across this article in a website. The tittle is “Modern Day Darvas Methods“. The article is very interesting because it highlighted the essential idea in the famous book, “How I made 2MM in the Stock Market” by Nicolas Darvas. The article stated,

“The book outlines how Darvas became a successful trader by overcoming his own mistakes through his ‘box theory’. Having gone through several different methods without finding any consistency in profitability, he ultimately became a chartist and a millionaire – imagine that!”

The article went further describing the book with more details on how Mr. Darvas prevent himself from “micromanaging” his trades,

While traveling the world by way of his profession as a dancer, he received his weekly copy of Barron’s, and reviewed his stocks of interest through these quotes which were delayed by days. After reviewing the prices and locating his favorite chart pattern, he would wire detailed trade instructions to his broker. Although today’s markets move faster than they did back then, at the end of the day he was simply focused on the price action and how his stocks were moving – just as we all should be. This means he was not being distracted by the extra “noise” of every tick, geopolitical news, rumors or sentiment.

I would put more stress on the last line: “…he was not being distracted by the extra “noise” of every tick, geopolitical news, rumors or sentiment..”

I couldn‘t agree more on this. Geopolitical news, rumors or sentiment, are nothing BUT NOISE. Just filter it out from the process of making trading decisions, and we’ll have a clear day

(*)
Get rid of the noise like this.

.

Safe country to have trading account? It would be Singapore, Canada and the UK. In those countries, brokers or dealers are required to segregate clients’ accounts, so that in the event of a broker’s bankruptcy, clients would be considered secured creditors and receive priority in bankruptcy proceedings.
Indonesia also have this arrangement, but the trading condition for trading OTC-FX and regional indices through regulated futures brokers in Indonesia is not good. Spread and commissions are gigantic. And not to mention the phony trade routing path.procedure. If you know how client’s trades are routed, where to, etc, you’ll get the best laugh of the day. lol.

Brokers Can Go Bankrupt
Posted by Grace Cheng on Nov 13 2007

Have you heard the latest big news about E*Trade Financials? E*Trade is an online low-cost brokerage company whose shares dropped 59% Monday after a Citigroup analyst estimated there is a 15% chance E*Trade will be forced to file for bankruptcy protection after the company warned in a filing that bigger-than-expected losses could result from its banking arm which invests in securities backed by mortgages.

It is startling to have such a massive plunge in stock price, but what is of main concern is that retail investors who have accounts with them are at risk of losing their money, even though SIPC’s protection cover securities customers up to $100,000 for claims for cash.

Luckily, E*Trade is mainly a securities/options broker, not a forex broker otherwise forex traders will have to start transferring their funds to rival brokers.

Are you trading through a broker that is situated in a country that requires brokers to segregate clients’ funds according to the country’s financial regulations? Countries such as Singapore, Canada and UK require brokers or dealers to segregate clients’ accounts, so that in the event of a broker’s bankruptcy, clients would be considered secured creditors and receive priority in bankruptcy proceedings.

Trade safe folks.

Yes, trade safe
(*)

Algorithmic trading automation project often face the problem of machine hosting and maintenance and the need of multiple account management.
SR’s features may perhaps provide solutions for the problems.

http://www.strategyrunner.com

Fully Automated Trading System – Online Trading Platform

Strategy Automation Station (SAS)
SAS is an advanced server-based solution for automation, execution & distribution of trading strategies written in TradeStation, Excel, Visual Basic, WealthLab, .Net, Fix, COM, Java, C, C++ or any other proprietary platform to one account or to multiple subscribers.

Who is it for?
Traders, System Traders, Strategy Developers, CTAs, POAs, CPO that want to automate their trading systems and trade on single account or distribute them to multiple subscribers.

Single Account – How does it work?
Execution: Clients runs the strategy in TradeStation (Excel, WealthLab, etc), and SAS routes strategy signals to clients account.
Control: Client can monitor strategy execution through Strategy Runner console.

Multiple Accounts – How does it work?
Execution: The developers execute the strategy from within their platform (e.g. TradeStation), and SAS sends strategy signal to clients’ account. Strategy Runner servers.
Distribution: The Strategy Runner server at the FCM’s facility receives the signals, and executes the trades for one or multiple subscribers in their individual accounts.
Control: Each individual subscriber can monitor and control the strategy execution through Strategy Runner Pro console.

Manage: The broker can monitor and manage all subscribers’ accounts from the Strategy Runner Manager tool.

Several brokers providing the possibility of using SR are: Infinity, Global Futures, Fox, Lind-Waldock, and Gaincapital.
(*)

.

On Nov 13, 2007 5:41 AM, Darma <sub01> <b01@gmail.com> wrote:

www.strategyrunner.com server based solution for trade automation.
Several non-MT4 brokers provide access for strategyrunner.
And one of GFT’s web page says that it also integrate with Metatrader 4.
http://www.gftforex.com/software/dealbook360/sr.asp
im not affiliated with any of them.
Does anyone have any experience or comment on this?

Thanks.

Access the next generation of fully automated algorithmic forex trading using
seamless data integration tools to communicate between two separate
software programs. This allows you to easily automate strategies that
have been created through TradeStation, Wealthlabs, MetaTrader 4
or MS Excel. Any standard GFT trading account with a strategy written
in one of these four platforms can obtain the Strategy Runner service
at no additional cost.

Your strategies can be fully integrated to work with Strategy
Runner’s platform, and your trades will be executed through GFT. This
formula, combined with GFT’s reliable trade execution and over 99
percent uptime, is well-suited for the 24-hour, 5.5 days a week, nature
of the forex market.

About Strategy Runner

Strategy Runner’s powerful
innovative server-based technology for fully automated algorithmic
trading solutions integrates the needs of buy- and sell- side
institutions to access, automate, distribute, and execute trading
algorithms. It provides flexible customizable solutions for centralized
secure distribution of broker-supplied algorithms over multiple assets,
accounts and clearing firms.

===========================

On 11/13/07, Carl Sanders <traden4x@gmail.com> wrote:

I have had no experience with them. I know someone who uses/has used them and has had some problems lately. Slow or possibly no execution. I have something similar to this but not to GFT. There is definitely a need for this.

Carl

===========================

On Nov 13, Darma <sub01> <b01@gmail.com> wrote:

When one can put Metatrader 4 working with strategyrunner, he can trade through Man Financial’s Currenex platform, the MF Spot On (http://www.mfglobal.com.sg/en/etrade_MFXSpot-On.html).
It says:

Automated System Trading

MFX Spot-On, our professional electronic Foreign Exchange trading
platform, is compatible with automated system trading applications. We
facilitate algorithmic trading for clients by providing API
(application programming interface) for algorithmic connection
functionality. Clients who have developed and host their own models can
connect to MFX Spot-On using third party systems.

The “third party systems” is meant to be strategyrunner, as I was directed to MFXSpot-On page from a banner in strategyrunner website.

Rgrds,
Darma

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For archives of Experts and Indicators from the MetaTrader Experts and Indicators Group
See http://www.forexmt4.com/ or http://www.lightpatch.com/forex

I’ve found the blog of Brett Steenbarger, author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003) and Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006) with an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge.
some of good posts in the blog are:
Steps toward joining prop firm
Test before you invest in trading career
trading techniques collection

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She prefer to get her payments in Euro rather than the Dollars. Smart move, baby.
You definitely are my type. lol.

Supermodel Bundchen Joins Hedge Funds Dumping Dollars

Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world’s richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar.
Like billionaire investors Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, the Brazilian supermodel, who Forbes magazine says earns more than anyone in her industry, is at the top of a growing list of rich people who have concluded that the currency can only depreciate because Americans led by President George W. Bush are living beyond their means.
Bundchen, 27, signed a contract in August to represent Pantene hair products for Cincinnati-based Procter & Gamble Co., she demanded payment in euros, according to Veja, Brazil’s biggest weekly magazine. She’ll also get euros for the deal she reached last October with Dolce & Gabbana SpA in Milan to promote the Italian designer’s new fragrance, The One, Veja reported. Bundchen earned $33 million in the year through June, Forbes reported in July.

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The more they worry and talk about it, the worse the situation would be.
China officials talk up
7 countries considering abandoning USD

A high-ranking official in China’s government recently gave a speech urging the Central Bank to (continue to) diversify its vast holdings of foreign exchange, currently estimated at $1.4 Trillion and rising. The speech was atypical in its level of directness, as Chinese officials tend to speak with a certain degree of circumspection if they think there is any possibility that their comments will reach the public. Specifically, he advocated making a play on the current volatility in forex markets, by selling “weak currencies” in favor of “strong currencies.” In fact, the most recent data shows that China is already doing just that: its holdings of US government bonds have declined even as its reserves have risen.

Why do officials have to talk that much?
Perhaps because they are politicians too.
And trend followers would just follow the price. he he he

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The intraday volatility pattern in the major currency pairs would likely to stay the same, thanks to these reasons on why London will keep its role as the center of financial world:
(taken from this link).

• (US) Financial regulation: After scandals like Enron, the financial industry is more heavily regulated. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act required lots of tightening of financial controls. As a result, it’s less attractive to do business in a country where every transaction is scrutinized.
• Patriot Act and Dept. of Homeland Security: After 9/11, US security was tightened quite a bit. That means there’s less openness with foreign transactions, travel, and more. In contrast, London is easier to deal with.
• Time zones: Who wants to keep weird hours? London’s time zone is more favorable for many world areas. Investors, generally outside of the US, who want to keep more regular hours trade on London time.
• International flavor: With London’s immigrant financial workforce and relatively open work and travel visas, the city’s financial makeup is very internationally diverse. Last year, a Russian pipe manufacturer chose to list with London’s stock exchange rather than NYSE because it’s “very internationally flavored,” a sentiment that is likely echoed by many others with financial interests.

Mr Bean has probably been adding more weight to the image of London’s openness. Imagine having friends like him for a coffee during the market break. Perhaps I could ask him for some advices on the market. lol.

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Some traders have put an enormous amount of time developing scalping strategies. One of them is a German trader named himself as Winwin. Despite of his controversial strategy in the 2007 EA Championship, his wisdom seems to be worth examined:

“….for me there are two scalping techniques.
first technique: in trendmarket take out some trend pips of the trend. if i want it to do in short term there is the problem that in a trend the market is moving fast. i cant set pending orders all the time in championship, because so i would create a very big journal. so i had to use marketorders, but in fast moving markettrends i will nearly always get a reqoute.
second technique: find out a range and trade in the opposite direction on the borders or on some points. but dont trade the whole range, only some pips. so you have more time for a marketorder because it is not a fast moving market.
i will underline, that this is my definition of scalping possibilities. it can be completely wrong to books maybe………..”

His wisdom has sparked an idea of a new strategy in my head. Especially with this idea of modifying a scalping technique to be accepted by most Metatrader brokers. Will discuss it tomorrow with Yogi, the programmer. Can’t wait for tomorrow. lol.
When having hot ideas in the head like this, i feel like being a 10 years old boy who has just been given a pair of new shoe, that he even wears the new shoe to sleep. lol.

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From my observation so far, traders who really love to show the screen shot of their wonderful charts with all those exotic indicators and lines and curves and all, are traders who would not feel comfortable for others to see their actual trading result. Some kind of a negative correlation there between the two things. lol.

Successful traders don’t spend times drawing exotic pictures off their chart. They have a system/method, and always is a simple method. Often they even get very bored to execute their own system by themselves, then they start to delegate the execution of their simple method. At that stage, paying programmers to automate it would be much cheaper than paying traders to execute the (boring) system.

Traders may have their own method, including all the analysis mumbo-jumbo. Yeah, they said that whatever works should be okay. Each traders have their own way. But from my experience, that is not the truth.

Look at the chart posted above. I can be 99% sure that the trader doesn’t want his trading result to be seen by others. But he is so proud of his painting. Yeah, he better buy some paints, brushes, and canvasses and maybe start to set up an art gallery/museum. lol. I mean, look at the chart. It’s so colorfull, so live (lol), even when I zoomed in the chart I felt a litle bit difficult to find out the candles. lol. I was so amazed. lol.

So, another hint here: if a trader still feel excited doing his daily analysis on his charts, using his amazing imagination on each of his analysis, or discussing the fundamental stuffs with his fellow traders in trading forums/chat rooms, perhaps he should take a look at his trading statement to bring him back down to earth and start to realize that it’s not the way to be profitable.

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If I set a target of a U$10M under management within the next 5 years, would it be something realistic? That would put us in the same competition room with these great names: Galleon Strategic Mgmt, DynexCorp Ltd., FEM Currency Portfolio Ltd, New World Cap’l Mgmt, MIGFX Inc, Overlay Asset Mgmt, Forex Cap’l Mkts, Lambay Capital Limited, Trimmer Cap’l Mgmt, and Ketch Capital Management.
Despite of the good start that we’re up 5% for the month of October which was achieved under a very conservative 10:1 gearing ratio by the Ri-VER algorithm, I still have this question in my head: “Am I dreaming here?”
And please don’t laugh at me when I sing the rainbow song while looking at this table taken from the November issue of Currency Traders Magazine.
Good luck to us!

Somewhere over the rainbow, way up high in the land that I heard of once in a lullaby. Somewhere over the rainbow, skies are blue. And the dreams that you dare to dream really do come true. Someday I’ll wish upon a star and wake up where the clouds are far behind me. Where troubles melt like lemon drops, away above the chimney tops, that’s where you’ll find me. Somewhere over the rainbow, skies are blue. And the dreams that you dare to dream really do come true. If happy little bluebirds fly above the rainbow, why, oh why can’t I?

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I have recently visited a forex forum that I haven’t checked for a long time. The situation isn’t really any different. People are still asking about what to do on their position. Their fellows will respond with some ’smart’ advices.

One asked, “I have some Sell trades open a few weeks now since EUR/GBP took its damn rise. Anyone know if EUR/GBP is going to go back down anytime soon?”
And here’s several responses he got from fellow traders:

“I heard that it is going to stay around .7000 in an effort to teach people to use stop losses.”
Heard from where/who? LOL

or watch this one: “it wont turning back….believe me”
Yeah, sure.. you’re having some insider info there?

and this one is fun too: “Hold on to your shorts. It is going back to 6800.”
Hahaha..LOLL.. so inspiring.

And there’s someone with a ‘more technical’ advice : “You are still inside .7 and .66 range, let’s see what happens next before you make another move.”
Alright.. Let’s wait and see forever and we can have beer while waiting for the margin call.

And someone was responding with no better situation: “I’ve been frustrated with this pair on several trades and being range bound as folks have been saying makes it easy to think one has picked a top or bottom only to see it move in the wrong direction…”
He has several nice folks.

Oh and this one too, a ‘more experienced’ one: “Right now the overall direction appears to be trending upwards ever so slowly!! What is the consensus on the pair breaking the .7028 top (of Sept 26th)? I’d like to see it get there as I think it might take off quite speedily after that …”
Allrite, how can I pay you for a complete daily analysis?

Let me tell my view on the market. Regardless of the support/resistance lines we might have somewhere on the chart, or how the stochastic or MACD is pointing at, or the economic fundamental situation is, the pair have the same probability of going lower or not. I’ve seen so many times, any kind of trendlines or support lines or fibo lines have been broken, then all the technical traders/analysts will eventually find another technical explanation to describe the revealed situation. And even worse with the fundamental analysis mumbo jumbo.

A successful trader prefer to trade his well-developed strategy, and then to hear no evil, speak no evil, see no evil.
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A conversation early this morning with one member of the Indotraders.

Trader: kalau tidak sibuk, saya mau tanya sedikit Pak mengenai COT (Common Of Trader)
Trader: apa Pak Darma tau mengenai COT ?
Trader: COT itu mengenai apa Pak ?
Darma: Commitment of Traders ya
Trader: iya
Darma: posisi net open di bursa, mas ya?
Darma: di bursa futures
Trader: saya tidak tau Pak mengenai COT
Trader: mau tanya mengenai COT itu dan apakah bermanfaat bagi trading kita?
Darma: tergantung time frame kita mungkin pak. dulu saya pernah coba perhatikan, karena ada beberapa teman traders yg mencoba menginterpretasi COT menjadi sentimen market
Darma: tapi kok rasanya gambyar dan tidak ada korelasi dengan market ya. terutama dengan market di time frame intraday.
Trader: apa berarti hanya bermanfaat di time frame D1 ke atas ?
Darma: sedangkan untuk timeframe long term, arah market dalam ekspektasi 2-3 bulan ke depan, saya sendiri lebih suka menggunakan pendekatan sistem aja. misalnya dulu pernah coba dengan sistem turtle atau aberration. fundamental ternyata nggak dipedulikan samasekali oleh market.
Darma: COT mungkin bermanfaat untuk mengantisipasi sentimen market untuk market yang likuiditasnya rendah
Darma: misalnya untuk saham di bursa jakarta. posisi net open para partisipan akan sangat mempengaruhi harga.
Darma: tapi kalau di market yg besar seperti spot fx, kayaknya gak pengaruh samasekali. karena data COT yang ada di bursa di NY atau Chicago, itu hanya sampel kecil dari market yang jauh lebih besar.
Trader: ok, terima kasih Pak Darma
Darma: iya, mas. sama2. itu pun hanya pendapat saya mas. belum tentu benar juga kok.

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Tentang COT dari salah satu halaman di website CFTC:

Commitments of Traders

The Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for market reports in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC.

Reports are available in both a short and long format. The short report shows open interest separately by reportable and nonreportable positions. For reportable positions, additional data is provided for commercial and non-commercial holdings, spreading, changes from the previous report, percents of open interest by category, and numbers of traders.

The long report, in addition to the information in the short report, groups the data by crop year, where appropriate, and shows the concentration of positions held by the largest four and eight traders.

Supplemental reports show aggregate futures and option positions of Noncommercial, Commercial, and Index Traders in 12 selected agricultural commodities.

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Jokes on market analysts. It goes to both the technical and fundamental type of analysts:

A market analyst is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today!
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Q: Why did God create market analysts ?
A: In order to make weather forecasters look good.
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The best time to buy anything is last year.
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The market is weird. Every time one guy sells, another one buys, and they both think they’re smart.
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I prefer a complete trading system rather than a complete analysis before each of my trades, especially that come from market analysts/gurus/experts.

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This week, we’ll explore several ideas on system development, particularly on the multiple entry and exit ideas that might be a powerful tool to be implemented into the currently used trading system. Not really a new one, actually. The technique has been implemented in several development project by several other fellow quantitative traders, but has never been used in a proper way, imho. Some robots with ‘grid’ approach are usually ignoring the most important thing in system development, which is the risk-management and risk-limiting function. I have seen many ‘grid’ system that perform well in all trades but then suddenly wipe out the account in a single occasion. It’s like having the lion in a well-built cage but the lock is unlocked.

And now, Aditya K, a fellow quants, he is a very young boy (but not as young as my fellow in the picture, lol), has shown me his trading performance using this technique in a counter-trend approach, which generally is ‘gridding’ a counter-trend trades off (a suspected to be) an exhaustion condition of a move on a short to mid term time frame. But it seems like he has never been exploring the use of some volatility-measurement tools and other essential filtering aspects which in my experience are very significant in improving the performance of systems.

Meanwhile, the currently used system, called the Ri-VER (ver vy.6c), has been performing well this month. Its been trading well on the accounts and made a 3% gain on them. I hope the market will provide us with another great months ahead. Yeah, good luck to us.

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Kebetulan ada mas deddy yg tanya agak panjang, jd banyak yg mesti dijawab. dan kayaknya tak posting sebagai blog aja deh, instead of hanya private message, jd supaya bisa dibaca yg lainnya juga oleh temen2 di indotraders.

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good morning, mas deddy.
saya senang ada yg ngajakin diskusi beginian.
soal bikin EA, saya nggak coding sendiri kok mas. saya kerjakan bersama seorang programmer, teman kuliah satu kampus dulu di bandung, dia lulusan informatik, sedangkan saya farmasi. saya punya ide, dia coding. lalu utk modifikasi2, nambah2 filter, ngerubah2 perhitungan sedikit-sedikit, saya bisa lakukan sendiri. tapi setelah terjadi perubahan beberapa versi, saya kembalikan lagi ke dia utk diverifikasi apakah codingnya masih bener, gitu mas.. jadi kalo soal belajar coding yg baik, saya sendiri belum lakukan itu, krn saya sendiri belum ketemu metoda yg tepat utk belajar itu.

soal penggunaan mechanical system dalam bentuk EA di MT4, dibandingkan dgn trading manual dgn menggunakan segala kemampuan berfikir manusia beserta unsur emosi dan psikologinya, saya sendiri punya pegangan dalil2 sebagai berikut, mas:

dalil #1:
utk trading, kita hrus pakai metoda atau strategi yg kita yakini bahwa kalau dijalankan, akan profit. metoda atau strategi ini bisa macem2, bisa mekanis ataupun murni feeling, atau tebak2an.. tapi prinsipnya adalah kita akan menjalankan aktifitas trading menggunakan suatu cara -apapun itu bentuknya- yang kita yakini memberi peluang besar utk profit. Lha kalo kita gak punya strategi yg kita rasa akan profit, kita tentu gak akan bisa memulai trading kan ya?

dalil #2:
untuk bisa memilih strategi yang kita yakini akan profit, tentu kita harus melihat dulu, kira-kira apa bener suatu ide tentang strategi itu bakalan profit. Misalnya kalau ada ide strategi trading berupa: “buy kalau market retrace di fibo, lalu exit saat overbought”, tentu akan wajar sekali kalau kita cek ke historical, lihat2 secara visual di historical chart, apakah kalau kita lakukan strategi itu memang benar ada peluang akan profit. Lalu kalau ternyata kita harus perhatikan kondisi tertentu seperti big news time dll, itu juga kita lihat di historical. Hal ini tentu merupakan hal yg biasa dalam mencari-cari ide trading, kan? Setiap trader yg berusaha mencari strategi pilihannya, pasti melakukan hal ini, yaitu pemeriksaan historical, atau istilahnya backtest. backtest ini bisa manual/visual, atau mekanis utk lebih akurat.

dalil #3:
memeriksa suatu ide strategi tertentu dengan teknik pemeriksaan visual secara manual, memiliki banyak sekali kelemahan dan keterbatasan.
Kelemahan2 itu antara lain:

- seringkali kita memeriksa dengan bias/keberpihakan. seorang trader yg terlatih mungkin bisa mengurangi faktor ini. keberpihakan ini maksudnya begini mas: kita lakukan pengamatan visual untuk mencari pembenaran dari ide strategi kita. Jadi tiap kali kita lihat kejadian kalau kriteria entry-exit yg kita ingin periksa ternyata menghasilkan profit, kita hanya perhatikan itu saja. Kita lupa perhatikan bahwa ada banyak kondisi yang ternya berakibat kerugian, dan itu kita abaikan krn hasilnya tidak seperti yg kita inginkan. We see what we want to see.

- kelemahan parah lainnya adalah adanya faktor “oversight”, yaitu misalnya kita buy kalau marketnya breakout ke atas suatu trend line, kita pikir kita bisa jalankan strategi itu, padahal trend line nya terbentuk dari titik-titik fraktal sebelum dan sesudah kejadian itu. ya ini contoh ekstrim, tapi kesalahan “oversight” ini sering kali dialami oleh orang2 yg baru mulai mencoba mengembangkan strategi trading.

- kelemahan lain: bila di historical chart kita melihat ada move naik yg ‘bagus’, dan kita ingin bisa menangkap gerakan itu dan mengkapitalisasi profit dari gerakan itu, lalu kita cari2 kondisi yg mendahului gerakan ini, lalu kita anggap kita menemukan suatu strategi. begitu terus kita lakukan tiap kali kita lihat ada gerakan ‘bagus’ di market yg ingin bisa kita tangkap, kita coba-coba cari kondisi di market yg mendahuluinya. padahal kondisi itu berbeda2, dan itu hanya kelihatan kalau kita sudah lihat gerakan ‘bagus’ yg kita inginkan.

SEMUA kelemahan dan keterbatasan ini akan hilang kalau kita lakukan pemeriksaan menggunakan teknik non-manual, misalnya pakai program statistik, di excel, atau pakai backtesternya metatrader.

dalil #4
Kemudian kita sudah menemukan suatu strategi yg ternyata memang profit, misalnya tiap kali market bikin triangle di jam tertentu, lalu break ke atas saat MACD di long term mengarah naik — dan ini semua sudah ditest dengan cara yg akurat dan menghasilkan kesimpulan-kesimpulan sbb:
- “ooohhh… strategi ini kalau dijalankan memang profit”
- “rata2 dalam sebulan, kena SL hanya 5 kali, sedangkan selebihnya rata2 ada 20 yang kena TP”
Kalau kita sudah punya strategi yg setelah diperiksa memberi kesimpulan2 bagus seperti ini, tentu kita ingin menjalankannya secara disiplin kan?
Nah di sini lah faktor psikologi seringkali sangat mengganggu. Seringkali strategi yg seharusnya profit, tapi malah menjadi merugikan karena tradernya terganggu dari segi psikologi. Macem2 masalah psikologi yg bisa terjadi mas. Misalnya utk contoh trader yg pakai strategi triangle breakoutnya tadi:
- Sang trader enggan menuruti rules nya sendiri krn tiba2 ngerasa “kok kayaknya ngeri ya, buy di sini, walaupun triangle udah break ke atas, tapi kan market udah naik tinggi beberapa hari belakangan ini”..
- Sang trader tiba-tiba mengambil posisi trade padahal tidak ada kondisi yg sesuai dengan rules nya, krn tiba2 berfikir “ini mestinya bakalan naik nih, walaupun gak ada triangle, tapi ini kan marketnya udah bolak-balik di bawah resistance ini, jadi sekarang udah break, kita mesti buruan masuk nih supaya nggak ketinggalan”.
- dan masalah ketidak-disiplinan lainnya, terutama masalah exit, menggeser SL, position sizing yg seenak perutnya, dsb dsb dsb..

nah kalau kita udah test/periksa ide strategi kita dengan menggunakan teknik yg akurat, misalnya menggunakan algoritma di metatrader, mestinya strategi itulah yg akan kita jalankan dengan disiplin kan.. disiplin artinya disiplin, nggak diubah2. gak dibikin pengecualian2 yg bebeda-beda tiap saat. kalau memang ada kondisi yg akan dikecualikan, misalnya gak akan trading kalau market New York libur, ya itu mesti diperiksa juga di historical kalau dilakukan begitu hasilnya gimana, apa memang lebih baik atau tidak. Kalau memang lbih baik, ya itu lah yg hrus dijalankan dengan disiplin, dst.

Trading dengan disiplin ini semua akan jauh lebih mudah bila kita jalankan strategi kita menggunakan suatu computer-programmed algorithm, misalnya pakai tools alert di MT4, atau bahkan pakai tools automatic trading di MT4 menggunakan EA itu.

dalil #5
Kalau kita tidak percaya dengan suatu strategi akan profit dijalankan krn kita pikir market akan berubah sehingga misalnya di contoh di atas, strategi triangle dan MACD itu kayaknya cuman profit di dulu2 aja, tapi besok2 belum tentu, ya lalu kita tidak punya alasan yg kuat utk menjalankannya, bukan? Di sini, menurut saya, kembali ke faktor psikologi dan rasional.

Kalau strategi tarik2 garis dgn supp/res atau fibo itu kita pikir gak akan profit lagi di masa depan, ya berarti kita gak akan pakai strategi itu juga. Kalau kita gak percaya suatu strategi punya harapan akan profit, lalu dengan apa kita akan trading dong. Sampai saat ini, sepenjang pengetahuan saya, utk menjalankan suatu strategi utk ditradingkan live, setidaknya kita hrus punya harapan bhwa strategi itu akan profit kalau dijalankan. Lebih baik lagi tidak hanya harapan, tapi juga keyakinan, yg kita dapatkan dari hasil pemeriksaan yg menunjukkan hasil yg baik, dan pemeriksaannya akurat.
Dan kalau kita yakin strategi trsebut mestinya profit, tentu kita ingin lakukan dengan disiplin se-disiplin-disiplinnya, kan.

Semua dalil2 dalam pengembangan dan eksekusi strategi trading di atas tadi menunjukkan argumentasi yg sangat kuat utk menggunakan automated system. Gak ada pilihan lain, menurut saya.
Kalaupun artificial intelligence kita percaya bisa menjadi tool yg lbih baik, dan kita tidak percaya thd strategi yg hanya linear matematis biasa, ya lakukan itu. Do whatever you want to do.
Kalau setelah kita periksa suatu strategi secara akurat menggunakan EA di MT4, lalu forward testing menunjukkan hasil bagus juga, tapi begitu mau live kita malah tidak percaya bahwa market akan berlaku begitu lagi, ya kita punya hak penuh utk tidak menggunakan strategi itu utk live. Don’t do anything we don’t wanna do.
Tapi kalau dalam keadaan itu lalu kita drop out strategi itu hanya krn tidak berani, ya lalu mau trading pakai strategi apa? There’s no any other way better.

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have just received a news from the broker early this morning. it’s about the fund that has just arrived in the account of an important client. although i have my internet connection working well here in the middle of the village of ubud, but i couldn’t get connected with the server back in the office using the teamviewer remote software. seems that it has some issues of failure to resume after a shut down.

with this situation, i guess i have to visit the server room sometimes today just to restart the server and will move the server to yogi’s place maybe next week. i have nobody with the ability to handle the situation in the office today, so i need to call the client today that the account wont be start traded today, and theres no need to hurry bacause the market will still be there with more opportunities lay ahead to get.

There was the thing that will happen when using a broker that close earlier than others. There was no price on IBFX’s feed where my TP at USDJPY 115.52 should be hit.

Look at these pictures below.
The first and second picture are the screen shot of the 15min charts of USDJPY on FXLQ and MIG. There was a tall candle there from the both brokers.

But with IBFX, the candle at 20:45 where the price should hit my TP wasnt there because they close earlier on friday. So there was no tall candle there.

This is FXLQ’s price:

This is MIG’s price:

And look at what IBFX has done to the price:

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Need to add more touch on the money-management part.
Now is still using a proportional increment according to the equity.
Cllick on the thumbnail to view a screen shot of the golden goose. =P

Thanks to Mojo who in the previous chat session, has reminded me of some basic concept in system development. The algorithm is so much better now.

Conclusion from a valuable chat session today with him:
Mojo: 1) use faster momentum (osma)
Mojo: 2) segmental optimization
Mojo: 3) don’t depend on timefilter

http://www.mt4tools.com

An essential tool in trading algorithm development. A good trader should never use any trading systems into their live trading before doing all things that can be done using this tool.

This tool gives a more complete capability to analyze MetaTrader reports, e.g. for doing risk analysis on a portfolio of multiple currency pairs, something that can not be done by using the Metatrader alone.

Its RiskSIM simulator, with the capability of doing Monte Carlo test is an important tool to further understand the risk profile of a trading system being tested.

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An interesting article about algorithmic trading I’ve found here.
An excerpts from it:

…………..Recent research from the Tabb Group indicated that in the USA, perhaps 60% of Investment Managers use or experiment with algorithmic trading……………

The majority of many friends and prospective clients i’ve talked with still believe that algorithmic trading is just a new, un-tested, un-reliable, too-risky approach to trade the market. The majority of retail investors still hold a strong believe that trading must be done using technical analysis that needs imagination to draw the trendline, need to have a sensitive-trained eye to spot the support/resistence levels, must use feelings in some extent, that the skill of an experienced trader is too complex to be programmed into a computer program, etc etc etc.. All these have resulted in a popular believe that algorithmic trading is an impossible approach for profitable trading, and it’s only for daydreamers.

Well, I feel sorry for them, feel sad for them, but since it is still –and will still be– the nature of the statistic is 95% of the players are losers, so let them be. They want to do this discretionary, well equipped with all those technical analysis mumbo-jumbo, and with all those fundamental analysis bullshit, so let they get what they deserve to get.

Recent research from the Tabb Group indicated that in the USA, perhaps 60% of Investment Managers use or experiment with algorithmic trading. I believe that they have a better chance to be belong to the winners group than all the rest of the crowd that I feel sorry about.

(*)

Pagi ini berkesempatan chat-chat curhat dgn seorang teman yang selalu menginspirasi. A Guru, if you like to call it. Dia salah satu founder dan moderator di Metatrader Expert and Advisor Groups. He has been always inspiring. Terutama di bidang Algorithmic Trading. Kalau di bidang-bidang lain, ya beliau ini pun cukup menghibur, hahahahaha

Chat ini saya posting di sini, karena saya pikir, obrolan ini mungkin bermanfaat dan menginspirasi bagi teman-teman sesama pengembang trading algorithm, terutama untuk teman-teman Indotraders.

Selamat menyimak.

Darma: jo, apakabar. gw pengen tanya. kalau development market modelling seperti yg kita lakukan dgn bikin trading algorithm begini, bidang studi apa yg melakukannya di universities ya? thx
Mojo: financial engineering
Mojo: ato quantitative finance
Darma: ic. kalau seperti gw yg ga ada latar belakang economic/finance, hanya background science aja, mungkin gak bisa ambil postgrad dgn scholarship, terutama di germany.
Mojo: asal lu bisa lewat tes matematikanya biasanya gak masalah
Darma: ok thanks jo for the leads.
Mojo: k
Darma: apakabar jo. masih trading?
Mojo: baek … masih
Darma: my robot, jo. intraday yg main reversal di jam2 ranging, sampai sekarang equitynya bolak-balik mulu nih
Darma: http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/2660/detailedstatementeb9.gif
Mojo: bolak balik naek? keren dong
Darma: di timeframe ini, spread dan cost menjadi terlalu significant
Mojo: masih yg terakhir?
Darma: kagak naek, disitu2 aje
Darma: udah 3 bulan live tuh jo.
Mojo: lha yang laen emangnya gak bisa cover?
Mojo: itu trade selama 3 bulan total?
Darma: yup. di interbankfx. mungkin klo dipindah ke broker yg spread di cable lebih tipis, udah positif tuh. initial test, $300 doang tuh jo
Mojo: ya berarti efisien dong ea-nya
Darma: huahahaaa. efisien apaan
Mojo: sayangnya pengennya yg gak efisien ya
Mojo: iya efisien, kan jadi delta neutral
Darma: kalo jadi IB, makan rebate, enak tuh. transaksinya banyak
Mojo: kalo market efisien ya jadinya gitu
Darma: ic ic
Darma: ini ngandelin premis bahwa pada jam2 sepi antara closing US dan sebelum open EU, market ranging
Darma: jadi sell di top bollinger, buy di bottom bollinger.
Mojo: yg presentasi terakhir kan?
Darma: gitu doangan
Darma: iya jo, yg itu
Mojo: ya tinggal difilter ama direction aja kan?
Darma: cuman udah dimodif exit nya, poisition sizingnya, dll
Mojo: buy bottom on bull, sell top on bear
Mojo: emang ada cara laen buat trading?
Darma: haha, iya sih jo. gw udah coba filter gitu. tapi tampaknya di timeframe itu, marketnya independen, gak dipengaruhi oleh bull/bear timeframe yg lbih besar.
Darma: malah jadi ada profitable trades yg difilter
Mojo: ooo
Darma: kalo strategi ini dimainkan di tmpat yg lbih tipis cost/trade nya, kyknya udah profit
Mojo: bikin bridge ke ECN ajah
Darma: mstinya sih gitu ya. cuman gw sebel banget, kok profitable trading itu ujung2nya sangat dipengaruhi cost per trade ya..
Darma: main long term juga, gw hitung2, profitnya habis dimakan interest.
Darma: mungkin approach strategi gw terlalu konvensional
Mojo: wah konvensional itu gimana ya
Mojo: toh market bukan brownian kan
Darma: jadi udah diantisipasi oleh market maker. di tf kecil, diantisipasi dgn spread. di tf besar, diantisipasi oleh interest.
Mojo: jelas2 bukan 50-50
Mojo: kalo gak efisien ya bisa dieksploit
Mojo: interest mah kecil
Mojo: (kecuali maen carry )
Darma: hmm.. maksud gw, approach gw terlalu seperti ‘trading yg seharusnya’.. gak kayak yg akal2in market itu lho, seperti yg grid, martingale, dll..
Mojo: kayaknya sih gak perlu diakalin ya
Darma: ic ic
Darma: iya, gw jg pikir gitu.. emang mestinya wajar2 aja sih.
Darma: yg risk nya masuk akal
Darma: dan strategi yg wajar gini
Darma: cuman akhirnya di kasus gw ini, cost receh2 menjadi sangat berpengaruh
Darma: akhirnya, sampe sekarang pun, belum kelihatan hasil nih.
Mojo: lha bukannya backtest/forward dulu katanya spektakulieur?
Darma: but let’s see, bulan depan mungkin market menjadi lebih ‘teratur’, yaitu ranging di jam2 itu
Mojo: tapi minimal kan gak kemana2
Darma: yup, backtest oke banget.
Mojo: terus keliatan gak ada ‘musim’ begini di backtest?
Mojo: kudunya kan kasih clue yg jelas
Darma: tapi memang selalu ada masa2 3-4 bulan di tiap tahun yg marketnya lari pas jam2 itu.. tiap tahun ada aja gitu.. mudah2an yg tahun ini, yg equity gw gak ke mana2 ini, adalah kejadian yg 3-4 bulan seperti di tahun2 sebelumnya
Darma: yup, ada musim begini
Mojo: ya asik dong
Mojo: bentar lagi gua ditraktir makan2 di bali
Mojo: mozaic ubud ya
Darma: huahahahah elu bisa aja
Darma: kekhawatiran gw, musimnya kok agak panjang ya kali ini
Mojo: lha, kan abis gelap terbitlah terang
Darma: ya, jadinya tetep, menunggu dulu deh
Mojo: gak papa, gua juga bisa nunggu makan2 … tenaaang
Mojo:
Darma: di tahun2 backtest, misalnya profit 2000pips per tahun, itu dari 600 transaksi.. jadi kalo per transaksi ada cost yg lebih mahal 1-2 pips aja di live trading, maka profil ekuity nya jadi beda.
Mojo: itu MBT kan buka API ma
Mojo: kan ente ada programmer di bali
Mojo: cobain ajah kesono eksekusi signalnya
Mojo: keliatan beda gak
Darma: yup
Darma: jadi kesimpulan gw sementara ini: menunggu. kalo masih gak bagus juga, cari eksekusi yg lebih murah per trade. gitu perkembangan gw jo. lu gimana
Mojo: ah gua mah gak kemana2
Mojo: masih stuck
Darma: lha kalo masih stuck di tanjakan equity sih asik jo
Mojo: amin
Darma: tuh kan
Mojo: pengennya sih stuck kenapa gak bisa >100% seminggu
Mojo: pengennyaaaaa
Darma: anjritt
Darma: jo, thanks for the chat.
Darma: inspiring, as always.
Mojo: sip
Mojo: ah inspiring apanye
Mojo: perspiring iya, panas
Darma: yeyyy

Ya, begitulah. Mojo, selalu inspiring.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Good luck to us!

(*)

Due to the regulation we strictly comply with, Risenberg Capital are not soliciting/offering any advisory services, nor any managed account programs nor any kinds of investment products to clients from Indonesia.

Existing holders of account(s) with FXLQ (USA), or FastbrokersFX (USA), or MIGFX (Swiss) –under their very own discretion– can have their account(s) to be traded by any trading robots provided by any vendors under a Limited Power of Attorney (LPOA) arrangement.

For information on Risenberg’s project on mechanical trading systems, please send us your query.

(*)

Dear valued partners of Risenberg,
after a contraction in intraday volatility since the begining of 2007 on all major pairs, we are now observing a convincingly increasing volatility.
Using a 15 bars Average True Rrange (ATR) on 15minute chart, then putting a 100 bars Simple Moving Average off the ATR readings, we can observe a significant increase in intraday volatility.
This phenomenon is seen across all forex pairs, including pairs we are now trading using the RiVER system: the Brit Pound, Euro, Canadian, and the Swissie.

Volatility was very low during November 2006 – July 2007.

And this is the reading we have been having for several weeks now.

A very good news for us.
This should be a favorable condition for the business.
Wish us luck!

(*)

http://www.mistigri.net/Products/MetaTrader/Obfuscator.php

Rather than contemplate whether to publish your work or not, let’s just make it a bit more difficult for the bad guys because is it worth it for you to give away a free indicator or script or expert and have some person (jackass) decompile and give the source code away? I have heard that there is a group out there that dedicates all its time decompiling anything they can get their hands on … bastards.

This product will remove all comments from your original mql file and will also format the code in such a way that it will be very hard and it will take a lot of time to make any sense out of it.

Download the MT4 Obfuscator at the bottom of this page, copy it into your experts folder. Double click on MT4Obfuscator.exe, on the prompt window type in the name of the file to obfuscate. For example “MACD.mq4″ then press enter. Note that the file name can not have a space in it … Then enter the output file name. For example “Obfs_MACD.mq4″ and press enter. When the app is done press any key to exit the app.

Now in the MetaTrader 4 editor open the obfuscated file, in my example “Obfs_MACD.mq4″ file and compile. Should you choose to distribute your EA, make sure to send out the obfsucated ex4 file.

(*)

http://webexhibits.org/daylightsaving/index.html

Doing works and projects on the global currency market, make me hit several times on the confusion of the DST rules.
Seems like this website is a good place to rationalize the idea in my head. LOL.

(*)

Pada umumnya pelaku pasar melakukan aktifitas trading di market currency, saham, atau derivatif, dengan menggunakan salah satu atau gabungan dari dua aliran, yaitu dengan pendekatan teknikal atau pendekatan fundamental.

Namun kedua aliran tersebut memiliki kelemahan mendasar, yaitu berusaha melakukan prediksi. Padahal prediksi di mana pun tidak pernah bisa diandalkan. Performance/kinerja dari aktifitas trading yang didasarkan pada pendekatan prediktif tidak akan pernah profitable secara konsisten. Resiko dan ekspektasi profitnya sulit untuk diukur.

Berikut terusan pembicaraan saya dengan mas wahyu, sedikit mengenai hal tersebut.

Awalnya mas wahyu tanya soal option, tapi kemudian saya menambahkan informasi mengenai pendekatan algoritmik dalam melakukan aktifitas trading.

Urutan email sudah saya susun ulang dari yang pertama ada di atas, dilanjutkan jawab-menjawab secara berurutan.

Semoga bermanfaat.

———- Forwarded message ———————————————————-

==================================================

On 7/10/07, Dewanto, Wahyu wrote:

Darma: Apa khabar? Boleh ganggu sedikit mau tanya tentang stock market. Minggu lalu saya diajak teman ikutan free seminar Options yg diajar oleh Abraham Lembang. Dia itu dijuluki sebagai Bpk Option Indonesia oleh Smart FM radio. Krn dia claim yg bawa options pertama kali ke Indonesia. Bener apa nggaknya, saya tidak tahu .. Tapi anyway dari dia saya belajar sesuatu yg baru, bahwa bermain saham risknya dpt diatur agar tetap dapat gain walaupun harga saham tdk bergerak atau turun. Tapi lagi2 setiap ada free seminar pasti ada embel2 lagi bahwa utk ikutan maen harus diwajibkan ikut workshop yg notabene harus bayar juga .. Dan akhirnya kitapun tahu juga bahwa mereka itu sebenarnya promosi bisnis untuk dapat collect money. Hahaha

Saya mau tanya apakah Darma tahu tentang selak beluk bermain options?

Trims

Wahyu

==================================================

From: Darma Sudiarta
Sent: Saturday, July 14, 2007 7:06 AM
To: Dewanto, Wahyu
Cc: Wayan Mega Budiartha
Subject: Re: Options

Hallooww.. mas wahyu..

Iya nih, wayan sempat menyebutkan soal ini ke saya. tapi trus saya pergi ke luar kota selama seminggu ini. jadi baru reply hari ini. maaf ya atas kelambatannya, mas..

Option memang pintu masuk yg unik utk mengeksploitasi volatilitas market. Market apapun: stock, stock indices, spot fx, cfd.. any market. Masuk ke market dengan menggunakan teknik option, memang memaksa pelakunya utk mau tidak mau menjadi disiplin dengan risk management, karena bila masuk market dengan teknik spot atau plain-buy/sell, seringkali pelaku menjadi tidak disiplin dan loss cutting, yang seringkali berujung pada petaka amblasnya capital. Tapi sayangnya, dengan teknik option, timbul banyak sekali keterbatasan2. Banyak sekali manuver2 strategi trading yang tidak dapat diaplikasikan dengan menggunakan teknik option. Sedangkan sebaliknya, manuver2 strategi apapun yang coba dilakukan dengan teknik option, akan bisa dilakukan dengan teknik non-option seperti di kontrak rolling spot atau direct buy/sell di instrumennya.

Misalnya di kondisi market yg tidak bergerak, menggunakan teknik no-touch (double no-touch atau single nt) di option memang memberi kita peluang mendulang profit dari market yg diam. Tapi ini pun bisa dilakukan dengan teknik spot.

Sedangkan misalnya teknik trading trendfollowing yg memerlukan pyramiding, atau teknik trading intraday yang membutuhkan kelincahan entry-exit dengan risk management yg terukur, tidak bisa dilakukan lewat option.

Gitu pendapat saya sih tentang option, mas.

kalau tentang pak abraham lembang yang disebut sebagai bapak option indonesia, rasanya kurang tepat ya. option adalah teknik trading yang dikenal luas dalam dunia trading sejak dulu. saya dan kawan2 mengenal option, tanpa sedikitpun bersentuhan dengan beliau atau informasi dari indonesia, jadi ya rasanya lebih banyak trader di indonesia yang mengenal option secara langsung dari luar negeri. hanya saja, tidak mengajarkannya kepada publik, apalagi mendulang profit dari jualan training seperti itu.

Shovel sellers memang selalu berkembang subur. Hal serupa juga terjadi di market lain. Untuk di Indonesia, kali ini kebetulan sedang booming di option. Seprti halnya ciri2 dari shovel sellers lainnya, hal yang biasa2 saja dan penuh resiko, dibuat seolah2 bombastis, no-risk atau less risky dll. Tapi kalau nilai nominal kursusnya terjangkau, tidak ada salahnya ikut kursusnya, mas. Lalu nanti kalau sudah mengerti juga, bisa aja nanti mas wahyu bikin kursus serupa. bisnis kursus memang less risky dibanding mentradingkan teknik tersebut secara langsung..

Rgrds,
Darma Sudiarta
Risenberg Capital
www.risenberg.com
==================================================

On 7/14/07, Dewanto, Wahyu wrote:

Darma my good fellow:

Trims utk penjelasannya.

Kayaknya Darma harus kasih education ke kita2 nih ttg bgmn strategi trading yg jitu. Saya bener2 blind dgn bisnis yg beginian.

Apakah Risenberg juga memberikan kursus2/seminar2 gratis?? hahaha becanda koq …

Denger dari Wayan, Risenberg cuma mau memberikan advise consult ke company bukan personal? Wah padahal kita sangat berharap, Darma bisa membukakan mata kita utk melek stock trading … jadi kita tidak jadi looser atau gambler dalam bisnis yg beginian. Maklum aja capital yg ada cuma pas2an.

Kapan dong ke jakarta ngobrol2 lagi?

wahyu

==================================================

From: Darma Sudiarta
Sent: Tuesday, July 17, 2007 2:26 PM
To: Dewanto, Wahyu
Subject: Re: Options

Sama2, mas wahyu.. saya senang sekali kalau kita bersama teman2 mas wahyu bisa bertemu dan saling berbagi pengalaman, pandangan, dan pengetahuan dalam hal trading ini. saya sendiri mendevelop algorithms, untuk market currency. sedangkan untuk stock, ada juga algorithms utk market ini, tapi belum pernah saya gunakan karena masih terbatasnya akses ke market saham kita, yaitu belum adanya akses penggunaan automatic execution oleh robots/algorithm secara langsung ke market. bisa saja lewat perantara brokers, dan mestinya profitable juga, karena salah satu algorithm yg bermain di mid-long term memang memiliki sifat-sifat yg universal, bisa ditradingkan di market apa pun, apalagi di market saham Indonesia yg masih immature, sehingga sangat favorable utk sistem-sistem trading trendfollowing mekanis seperti salah satu sistem yg pernah saya develop.

iya, memang dengan menggunakan suatu algorithm yg terdefinisi jelas, dan terkuantisasi, teruji, maka kita akan melakukan aktifitas yang terukur di market. penggunaan algorithm ini bukan hanya sekedar penggunaan analisis teknikal, tapi beyond technical, karena technical analysis memiliki kelemahan yang fundamental. kalau saya ke jakarta, dan ada waktu untuk bincang-bincang tentang hal ini, akan sangat menarik. Dan menurut pengetahuan saya, pendekatan seperti ini dalam melakukan aktifitas trading di market, adalah hal yang baru di Indonesia.

Rgrds,

Darma

==================================================

On 7/17/07, Dewanto, Wahyu wrote:

Darma:

Wah makin menarik aja nih dengan algorithm yg dibikin oleh Darma.. yg dimaksud dgn market currency itu valas ya?? Kalo algorithmnya Darma bisa memprediksi stock wah lebih asiik lagi nih … jenius sekali …

Boleh dong kita ketemuan ntar kalo sempat mampir di jkt dan lagi nggak sibukk.

salam hangat,

wahyu

==================================================

From: Darma Sudiarta
Date: Jul 17, 2007 4:22 PM
Subject: Re: Options
To: “Dewanto, Wahyu”
Cc: megabudi

Iya, mas wahyu, currency market maksudnya valas, tapi bukan yang majors versus rupiah, karena kurang volatile utk bisa dieksploitasi.

utk stock, bbrapa algorithm memang bisa digunakan, misalnya algorithm yg berbasis “trendfollowing” yang bermain di mid-long term.

sebenarnya sih tidak memprediksi, karena kalau ditanya market tertentu akan bullish atau bearish, tidak bisa dijawab. currency mana yg akan naik atau turun, kapan suatu saham akan naik atau turun, dan berbagai macam prediksi, tidak dapat dilakukan.
yg dilakukan oleh algorithm2 tersebut adalah menentukan keputusan2 trading, yang terdiri dari entry timing, size (besarnya/jumlah contract yg kita transaksikan sesuai dengan capital kita), timing exit, multiply entries/exits, semua tanpa pendekatan prediktif sperti yang dicoba dilakukan oleh para market technicians apalagi para pakar fundamentalist yang selalu mencoba memprediksi.

iya mas wahyu, nanti kita kontak2an kalo saya ke jakarta, kita ktemuan aja. kalau ada 5-10 orang, saya sekalian siapkan presentation slides atau handouts, untuk kita berdiskusi dan berbagi pengetahuan.

Rgrds,

Darma

http://www.ninjatrader.com

NinjaTrader seems to be a good platform for developing robot.
It is based on C++ language, so it will be powerful enough to handle various features of the robots.

Although we are now satisfy with the Metatrader platform, but the lack of choice for well-known brokerage firms to execute the trades has been some obstacle for accepting big clients. Big clients prefer to put their money with well-known brokers, such as the Man Financials, or at least the Interactive Broker.
The largest brokerage firm that accept MT4-generated trades are the FXLQ, which we are now using. Their NAC now is some 36 million USD, while the Man’s is some 500 million USD

List of NT-supporting brokerage firms:
- Mirus Futures
- AMP Futures
- Spike Trading
- cCAP Futures
- Gain Capital
- Alaron
- Interactivebrokers
- MB Trading
- Velocity Futures
- Advantage Futures
- Man Financial
- Fox
- Daniel Trading
- King
- Infinity
- Zaner
- Rosenthal Collins
- Dorman Trading

Man Financial is the real big one. Having the robot playing at this big playground of the trading world will put us to the next level of the competition.

(*)

———- Forwarded message ———-
From: Darma Sudiarta
Date: Jul 14, 2007 8:05 AM
Subject: Re: Options
To: “Dewanto, Wahyu” <*************@*******.com>

Cc: Wayan Mega Budiartha <*********@yahoo.com>

Hallooww.. mas wahyu..
Iya nih, wayan sempat menyebutkan soal ini ke saya.
tapi trus saya pergi ke luar kota selama seminggu ini. jadi baru reply hari ini. maaf ya atas kelambatannya, mas..

Option memang pintu masuk yg unik utk mengeksploitasi volatilitas market. Market apapun: stock, stock indices, spot fx, cfd.. any market.

Masuk ke market dengan menggunakan teknik option, memang memaksa pelakunya utk mau tidak mau menjadi disiplin dengan risk management, karena bila masuk market dengan teknik spot atau plain-buy/sell, seringkali pelaku menjadi tidak disiplin dan loss cutting, yang seringkali berujung pada petaka amblasnya capital.

Tapi sayangnya, dengan teknik option, timbul banyak sekali keterbatasan2. Banyak sekali manuver2 strategi trading yang tidak dapat diaplikasikan dengan menggunakan teknik option. Sedangkan sebaliknya, manuver2 strategi apapun yang coba dilakukan dengan teknik option, akan bisa dilakukan dengan teknik non-option seperti di kontrak rolling spot atau direct buy/sell di instrumennya.

Misalnya di kondisi market yg tidak bergerak, menggunakan teknik no-touch (double no-touch atau single nt) di option memang memberi kita peluang mendulang profit dari market yg diam. Tapi ini pun bisa dilakukan dengan teknik spot.

Sedangkan misalnya teknik trading trendfollowing yg memerlukan pyramiding, atau teknik trading intraday yang membutuhkan kelincahan entry-exit dengan risk management yg terukur, tidak bisa dilakukan lewat option.

Gitu pendapat saya sih tentang option, mas.

kalau tentang pak abraham lembang yang disebut sebagai bapak option indonesia, rasanya kurang tepat ya.
option adalah teknik trading yang dikenal luas dalam dunia trading sejak dulu. saya dan kawan2 mengenal option, tanpa sedikitpun bersentuhan dengan beliau atau informasi dari indonesia, jadi ya rasanya lebih banyak trader di indonesia yang mengenal option secara langsung dari luar negeri. hanya saja, tidak mengajarkannya kepada publik, apalagi mendulang profit dari jualan training seperti itu.

Shovel sellers memang selalu berkembang subur. Hal serupa juga terjadi di market lain. Untuk di Indonesia, kali ini kebetulan sedang booming di option. Seprti halnya ciri2 dari shovel sellers lainnya, hal yang biasa2 saja dan penuh resiko, dibuat seolah2 bombastis, no-risk atau less risky dll.

Tapi kalau nilai nominal kursusnya terjangkau, tidak ada salahnya ikut kursusnya, mas. Lalu nanti kalau sudah mengerti juga, bisa aja nanti mas wahyu bikin kursus serupa. bisnis kursus memang less risky dibanding mentradingkan teknik tersebut secara langsung..

Rgrds,
Darma Sudiarta
Risenberg Capital
www.risenberg.com

On 7/10/07, Dewanto, Wahyu wrote:
Darma:
Apa khabar?
Boleh ganggu sedikit mau tanya tentang stock market. Minggu lalu saya diajak teman ikutan free seminar Options yg diajar oleh Abraham Lembang. Dia itu dijuluki sebagai Bpk Option Indonesia oleh Smart FM radio. Krn dia claim yg bawa options pertama kali ke Indonesia. Bener apa nggaknya, saya tidak tahu ..
Tapi anyway dari dia saya belajar sesuatu yg baru, bahwa bermain saham risknya dpt diatur agar tetap dapat gain walaupun harga saham tdk bergerak atau turun.
Tapi lagi2 setiap ada free seminar pasti ada embel2 lagi bahwa utk ikutan maen harus diwajibkan ikut workshop yg notabene harus bayar juga .. Dan akhirnya kitapun tahu juga bahwa mereka itu sebenarnya promosi bisnis untuk dapat collect money. Hahaha

Saya mau tanya apakah Darma tahu tentang selak beluk bermain options?

Trims

Wahyu

http://www.derivativesstrategy.com

Have just found this link in my bookmark.

Derivatives Strategy (1992-2001) was a widely-praised publication that focused on the global derivatives market from a US perspective. It was written in easy-to-follow language for people who actually use derivatives products — not the quants who designed them.

It has some interesting comic archive too.

(*)

http://www.fxlq.com

Yeah, the robots feed themselves at this playground.
FXLQ – Forex Liquidity, LLC is our main clearing partner for our trades.

(*)

http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/

Background Affiliation Status Information Center (BASIC). Whether you are an investor thinking about opening a futures account or an NFA Member contemplating a new business relationship, BASIC can be a valuable resource for you.

(*)

http://www.cftc.gov/tm/tmfcm.htm

At this link, I always check the financial condition of certain FCMs. I also use this information as a first step of a due diligence.

Futures commission merchants (FCMs) must file monthly financial reports with the CFTC’s Division of Clearing and Intermediary Oversight within seventeen (17) business days after the end of the month. Selected financial information from these reports is published below. The most recent month-end information generally is added within twelve (12) business days after FCMs file their reports, but occasionally may be added later.

Some FCMs those don’t meet a certain level of minimum capital requirement should be avoided as a business partner.

(*)

http://www.teamviewer.com

Has anyone use this?
Or are there any other similar tool anyone recommend?

(*)

I found this good article on a trader’s personal website. It is about steps to becoming a profitable trader. It is a good reading. On which step are you now ?

===============================================

There are a number of steps to becoming a FOREX trader and they are outlined below. Please take the time to read it because if you are going to succeed it is important that you have your feet firmly on the ground and have some idea of what to expect. The following text is reproduced with the permission of SoulTrader of http://www.simpleforexsystems.com

My experience to date personally and in discussion with other traders confirms its accuracy.

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. you know that its a good way of making money because you’ve heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy – after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down – what’s the big secret to that then – lets get cracking!

Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven’t got the first clue about what you’re trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again.

You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you’ll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.

This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move.

Step Two – Conscious Incompetence

Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader – you don’t have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine. and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad – you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you’ll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you’ll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your ‘magic system’ starts today. You’ll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you’ll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.

You’ll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it’s not you – you’ll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You’ll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars – they cant be making that amount because you’ve studied and you don’t make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they’re in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.

You will be like a teenager – the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you’re stubborn and think that you know best – you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to – but you know better. You’ll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else – they don’t work for you either.

This step can last ages and ages – in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.

Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You’ve probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times.

Step 3 – The Eureka Moment

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it’s not the system that is making the difference. You realise that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins. You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you’re starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your ‘edge’ shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don’t get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn’t possibly predict it it isn’t your fault – as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.

You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing – consistency of your ‘edge’ and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour.

You learn about proper money management and leverage – risk of account etc etc – and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren’t ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step 4 – Conscious Competence

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you’re on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time – day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips – generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

You’ll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you’ve given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.

This lasts about 6 months

Step Five – Unconscious Competence

Now we’re cooking – just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade – you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 100 pips in a day is becoming quite normal to you. This is trading utopia – you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

You’re a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they’re teenagers – some of them will get to where you are – some will do it fast and others will be slower – literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting – in fact it’s probably boring you to bits – like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job – it gets boring – you’re doing your job and that’s that.

You can now say with your head held high “I’m a currency trader”

FACT : 90%+ of traders loose money trading FOREX.

I quote from Dr Alexander Elder’s excellent book, Trading for a Living

“Brokerage records indicate that 90 out of 100 people trading today will probably be gone from the markets a year from now. They will hit rock bottom, crumble and leave. They will try to forget trading as they would a bad dream.”

The £64000 question is : Are you prepared to put in the time and effort necessary to put yourself into the <10% group who make money? There are no shortcuts.

That’s the long and short of it folks (couldn’t resist using that pun!) If I’ve put you off already, excellent. FOREX is not for you and you’ll save yourself money and frustration. If you are still fascinated, on the FOREX Info, FOREX Books and FOREX Tips links, you will find more than enough information and books to set you on the path to success.

I’m no FOREX expert or super trading guru but everything provided on these pages has at different times assisted me on my way. If I haven’t found the material helpful, or well written, it’s not on my page! I wish you every success on your trading adventure.

My philosophy is one of Trader help Trader. Much of what I have learned is by others giving their time and knowledge free of charge. If there is any way whatsoever that you think I can help you, please contact me. However, please do remember :

I’m proud of being his friend and knowing him personally.

Rgrds,
Darma

———- Forwarded message ———-
From: umanmojo
Date: Jun 18, 2007 12:13 PM
Subject: [MT_E and I] Moderators: You rang?
To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com

Folks, it’s been a long while since moderators said anything.
Honestly, we don’t like to but since there have been several hails for moderators lately, here goes:

If we remember correctly, the RSI pullback technique was originally pointed out by blackprinzze and welcomed by David Honeywell’s indicator code (transport_david) then soon gets adopted by others as Expert Advisors. Apparently, after certain phase of code development, the source codes to later enhancements is not divulged though the final compiled file is shared freely for trading. We dont think this categorizes as a phishing-like exploit, as we all know what the basic concept is and everyone is welcome to develop their own versions of the same concept. A grey area, but it’s more or less still workable.

The no .ex4 policy was originally made on the ground that people are using the sample file for either commercial/phishing exploit or senseless bragging – both keeping others out of participation to gain profit along with the author. If you do not want other people to use it and profit with no strings attached, SHUT UP & KEEP IT TO YOURSELF. The group is made for sharing after all. Please keep praises, comments, reminders, and critics to be constructive and leading for an objective conclusion, if solution is harder to find.

If anybody wants to do better, then have your own tweak/idea, show it, prove it, open the code, and continue supporting it. Ron Thompson has set an excellent example on his BollTrader and we are truly grateful for his selfless efforts.

Honestly we, the moderators, are quite surprised that with all the website forums on trading and metatrader code development out there, the YahooMT group is still breathing and stronger than ever with 8500 members. The group had come a long way from 2004 being the first
international group to focus on Metatrader (version3 days), survived through the troublesome days of early Metatrader 4 technical and broker issues, and still wrestling newer builds today. A free charting/development software that was previously unnoticed has paved the way for normal folks to take a shot at making money in the entrepreneurial & rather rocket-scientist way.

As some of you who have been with us since the beginning, you may know that we never liked to have a ‘moderated’ group. The only thing that’s moderated here with extreme prejudice is SPAMMING. We have strong personalities on board that represent different personal values. With that, you eventually have your occasional dose of name-callings, brawls, flames, pissing contest (which we didnt want sponsor-ridden, eventually cancelled, and coincidentally later MQL4 championship came out), whatever – you name it. All the spices that make a community colorful. But guess what? We are still here and learned to get along better with each other as new day comes.

By design, this mailing list/group is NOT a threaded forum and will never be. Strangely it still survived as is. Why? Because everybody likes to have his/her nose pointed at one direction, at one time or another. What you typed, attached, and sent to the group will be
served on the front page of things. The disadvantage? Try 100’s of mails/messages a day. Work with or around it. There are more than one way to organize the group’s mails.

Great ideas have been put forward here and worked out, if not come and go. Elder’s TSD (yes remember that one with the multi-timeframe backtest tweak on MT3?), FFCal, BollTrader, now RSI_R2 come superRSI, to name a few. A lot of EAs/indicators/methods have had their
15minutes of fame. We’re expecting more of those with better community attitude and support, but on minimal moderation. We’re all grown ups – or at least we thought we should be.

So,

To newbies and topic jumpers:
READ FIRST, ASK LATER. It’s all there. In case you subscribed on digest format or without attachment since you thought you were getting too many messages, don’t complain if you are missing the goodies. You got what you asked for, so avoid whining and if you do have to whine, be polite. Also, don’t complain if people wont answer right away, because they did, a few posts back. (Yes, we know you didn’t look thoroughly). Remember, even nice people can get pissed off. Thanks again to Ron’s generosity you can pickup what you’re missing at http://www.ForexMT4.com/

We won’t judge or stone you for joining only since you just heard of profitable EA’s here. There is no elite/non-elite stuff going on here. Only people who wouldn’t read the archives (and the link in the group joining/welcome mail message!!!) and people who would.

To the regulars:
APPLY RESPECT. It has been great so far and we think the group can be better. Thank you for making this little place great with your contributions.

More power & pips to all!

Mods (Bill, Mojo, Smoky, Perky)

Final tip:
Subscribe to this group in full with attachment and the whole shebangs through GMail. You can store up to 2-3 years worth of group messages complete with file attachments. Then use the GMail rules to forward them to your daily POP3 mailbox or organize them by labels. If you want to look for something later, look at your GMail archive. Yahoo mails are getting unlimited capacity, but we are not sure about organizational feature. Can somebody confirm?

For archives of Experts and Indicators from the MetaTrader Experts and Indicators Group
See http://www.forexmt4.com/ or http://www.lightpatch.com/forex

Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators/

<*> Your email settings:
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<*> To change settings online go to:
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Link: http://www.ForexMT4.com/

this is where all the goodies are stored.
thanks to Ron who provide the site.

———- Forwarded message ———-
From: Darma
Date: Jun 14, 2007 8:26 AM
Subject: Preventing over-leveraging (Was: IBFX problems)
To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
Cc: indotraders@yahoogroups.com

Regarding preventing over leveraging the account, i have these lines on my EAs :

// Money Management
if (prm_mm_enabled) {
volume = NormalizeDouble((AccountBalance()*prm_gearing_ratio)
/(prm_pair_diversify*MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSIZE)),
prm_lot_resolution);
} else {
volume = prm_mm_fixed_volume;
}
if (volume > MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_MAXLOT)) {
volume = MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_MAXLOT);
} else if (volume < MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_MINLOT)) {
volume = MarketInfo(Symbol(), MODE_MINLOT);
}

i use prm_gearing_ratio = 5 to 6. 10 is the most agressive number for me.
prm_pair_diversify needs to be input externally by me since i havent found a way for the EA to detect by itself how many pairs it is trading in a single account at a particular moment.
Does anyone has any idea on this?

Rgrds,
Darma

On 6/13/07, accrete <yahoogrp01@accrete.com > wrote:

I agree on not overleveraging the account. I know that (as mentioned and hoped for by another member) the idea Bluto stated he would incorporate in a future version is that of telling the EA just how much of the account it was allowed to trade. This would add a measure of safety also.

: ) Thom

—– Original Message —–
From: Sam

One thing to avoid is overleverage. I believe it’s best to leverage only around 10-20% of the account. Usually when we overleverage we want to be stringing on SL thereby prone to SL hunting as well as margin call danger. Forex is full of suprises. The goal is to be able to survive long term.

__._,_.___

For archives of Experts and Indicators from the MetaTrader Experts and Indicators Group
See http://www.forexmt4.com/ or http://www.lightpatch.com/forex

(*)

Risenberg Triathlon Team, will compete in the Bali International Triathlon, June 24th 2007.

The team members are:

Swimming: Bayu Putra.
3rd winner of International Lifeguard Championship, Sydney
Porda Bali, Klungkung Contigent
Private Trainer, Denpasar

Cycling: Cahya S
Gadjah Merapi Speed Cycling Club

Running: Ozias Ramlasi
PON Gold Medal for 3 period consecutively
Bronze Medal, Sea Games, Malaysia

For more information on the event, please visit the Bali International Triathlon website. http://www.balitriathlon.com

Risenberg Capital (www.risenberg.com) is an investment advisor specializing in the trading of the global currency market. Risenberg invest in research-based trading strategies. By partnering with Risenberg individual and institutional clients have gained access to robust trading strategies to be applied in their trading activity.

(*)

———- Forwarded message ———-
From: Darma
Date: Jun 6, 2007 3:00 PM
Subject: historical economic calendar?
To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
Cc: indotraders@yahoogroups.com,
Berjangka_Derivatives@yahoogroups.com, milis-aati@yahoogroups.com

Dear friends,

Does anyone know where can be found an HISTORICAL economic calendar
for the US, or Japan or Europe or just any of them?
for example, i wud like to know what was the economic data schedule
for the date of May 17th 2000, a certain day some several years ago ?
e.g. : was it a holiday? or was it a CPI day? or was it an Interest
Rate decision day?

Much appreciate.

Pamit.
Good bye.
It has been a great time with you all, guys!!
Thank you.

Was expected to be an important milestone.
It was about being a man with wings to fly.

I cant stand to fly, I’m not that naive
Man weren’t meant to ride with clouds between their knees.

Thanks to Aditya and friends at Topgrowth Futures.

(*)

There was this slide on my seminar today.
The song was echoing in my head during the day.

you’re just too good to be true
can’t take my eyes off of you..

So I told my self, “Keep focusing, Dar. This is a big day. Don’t mess it up.”
And finally, it was an excellent day today.
Like always

Terima kasih Tuhan, cahaya kasih Mu menghangatkan hatiku.
The water is colder, but the day was excellent.
Makasih, Tuhan.

(*)

.
———- Forwarded message ———-

From: Darma
Date: May 10, 2007 10:05 PM
Subject: Penurunan volatilitas short term: penyebab dan aplikasi praktisnya
To: indotraders@yahoogroups.com
Dear traders,

Kalau kita pasang indicator ATR (Average True Range), di timeframe 15 menit, dengan periode 15 bar, lalu dipasang moving average nya dengan periode 100 bar, maka kita mendapatkan suatu gambaran seberapa banyak gerakan rata2 per satu bar di 15 menit.
Nah, ternyata ada fenomena menarik.

Kalau di tahun-tahun dulu, misalnya di tahun 2005, rata-rata gerakan per 15 menit di EUR/USD adalah 13 pips (lihat gambar chart di bawah). Sedangkan di tahun-tahun sekarang ini, semenjak tahun 2006 november, gerakan market menjadi lebih tipis. Rata2 hanya 6 pips per 15 menit.

Hal yg sama terjadi di GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF dan lainnya.
Penyebabnya adalah: meningkatnya likuiditas market. Yang tadinya rata2 volume transaksi harian di forex adalah $ 1-2 trilliun per hari, semenjak pertengahan 2006, menjadi $ 3 trilliun per hari. Ini menurut report dari BIS (Bank for International Settlement).

Aplikasi praktis dari hal ini adalah:
Untuk trading di short term, intraday, tidak lagi realistis untuk mengharapkan takeprofit seperti di tahun-tahun sebelum 2006. Yang tadinya di GBP/USD mengharapkan bisa take profit 15-20 point dalam waktu 30-60 menit, kini hal itu agak sulit. Mesti di jam2 tertentu saja yang memang volatilitas meningkat seperti saat ada news. Kalau di jam-jam normal, dalam waktu 30-60 menit lebih mudah untuk bias ambil 10-12 pips saja. Itu contoh angka untuk di GBP/USD. Sedangkan untuk di EUR/USD, mesti dilihat masing2. Pasang saja indicator ATR dan moving average seprti gambar di bawah ini.
Ini tentu sejalan dengan menurunnya spread di retail spot di hampir semua broker di dunia. Yang misalnya saja tadinya spread 5 pips di FXCM dan marketmaker lainnya, sekarang rata2 udah pada turun. Spread 2-3 pips sudah lumrah sekali. Bahkan belakangan ini kita lihat spread aneh 1 pips no commission di marketmaker nekat seperti crown dan fxclearing. Kalau di bntuk2 ecn sih biasa, memang 1-2 pips dari sejak mereka hadir untuk retail sejak tahun lalu.

Segitu dulu. Selamat mengeksplorasi lebih jauh lagi. Kalo ada pendapat atau ide lain, silahkan disampaikan.

Rgrds,
Darma

Ugh, sering denger kan seminar2 dan promosi2 tentang investasi di market forex atau futures (stock index) gitu. Biasanya promosinya manis tapi isinya pahit.
Pasti udah sering denger kan, dengan iming2 “investasi”, tapi ternyata malah duit jadi amblas blas blas blas….
Kasus besar yg terbongkar misalnya kasus Sarana Perdana Indoglobal (SPI), trus ada kasus IBIST, trus kasus WBG (Dressel). Semua mengatas-namakan investasi. Belum lagi penipuan kecil2an yg dilakukan oknum marketing dari futures brokers gitu. Janjiin profit lah, nawarin fix-profit lah dll. Tapi kenyataannya malah sebaliknya: uang nasabah dibawa kabur. Haks haks haksss.. kacau banget dah pokoknya..

Nah, kebetulan akhir bulan mei ini saya ada kesempatan utk cuap2 di sebuah acara bersama pak Hasan Zein, dirutnya Bursa Berjangka Jakarta (BBJ). Mudah2an di kesempatan itu bisa disampaikan informasi yg benar tentang dunia trading di market forex dan futures. Jadi tidak seperti seminar2 bombastis scammers gitu.

Salah satu topik yg saya akan sampaikan adalh tentang bagaimana trading yang (menurut pengetahuan saya) benar. Tidak terjebak pada keputusan2 transaksi yang selalu menyebabkan amblasnya modal, dan tidak terjebak pada iming2 keuntungan investasi yang biasa dijanjikan oleh oknum2 marketin brokers itu.

After the sharing session, I do this small change to the algorithm, where it does the money management part of it.

volume = NormalizeDouble(
(AccountBalance()*prm_gearing_ratio)/
(prm_pair_diversify*MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSIZE)),
prm_lot_resolution);

This will automate the process in determining the position size based on a fixed number of gearing ratio.
I have a 5.33 gearing ratio, this will be the value of prm_gearing_ratio.
prm_pair_diversify will be 2, since the system will be run on two pair: EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
When trading on a mini acct, the MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSIZE) will automatically return a value of 10,000 or 100k when trading a standard account.
With this piece of code, i dont have to calculate some basic arithmetic on waste papers anymore. LOL.
This version is tagged as vy5f. So the version is StealthTrader_vy5f now. I hope F is for Final. he he he..
Good luck to us !!!